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author:

Su, Yan (Su, Yan.) [1] (Scholars:苏燕) | Fu, Jiayuan (Fu, Jiayuan.) [2] | Lin, Weiwei (Lin, Weiwei.) [3] | Lin, Chuan (Lin, Chuan.) [4] (Scholars:林川) | Lai, Xiaohe (Lai, Xiaohe.) [5] (Scholars:赖晓鹤) | Xie, Xiudong (Xie, Xiudong.) [6] (Scholars:谢秀栋)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

The construction of an interval prediction model capable of explaining deformation uncertainties is crucial for the long-term safe operation of dams. High effective coverage and narrow interval coverage widths are two key benchmarks to ensure that the prediction interval (PI) can accurately quantify deformation uncertainties. The vast majority of existing models neglect to control the interval coverage width, and overly wide PIs can cause decision confusion when operators are developing safety plans for hydraulic structures. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel interval prediction model combining bidirectional long-short-term memory network (Bi-LSTM) and split conformal quantile prediction (SCQP) for dam deformation prediction. The model uses Bi-LSTM as a benchmark regressor to extract and explain the nonlinear feature of dam deformation in the continuous time domain. SCQP is used to quantify the uncertainties in dam deformation prediction to ensure that the constructed PI can achieve high effective coverage while further improving the accuracy of the quantification of deformation uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated using deformation monitoring data collected from an arch dam in China. The results show that the average prediction interval effective coverage (PICP) of the proposed model is as high as 0.951 while the mean prediction interval width (MPIW) and coverage width-based criterion (CWC) are both only 5.815 mm. Compared with other models, the proposed method can construct higher-quality PIs, thus providing a better service for the safety assessment of dams.

Keyword:

Bi-LSTM dam deformation prediction interval prediction split conformal quantile prediction uncertainty quantification

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Su, Yan]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Water Resources & Harbor Engn, Fuzhou 350100, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Fu, Jiayuan]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Water Resources & Harbor Engn, Fuzhou 350100, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Lin, Weiwei]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Water Resources & Harbor Engn, Fuzhou 350100, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lin, Chuan]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Water Resources & Harbor Engn, Fuzhou 350100, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Lai, Xiaohe]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Water Resources & Harbor Engn, Fuzhou 350100, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Xie, Xiudong]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Water Resources & Harbor Engn, Fuzhou 350100, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

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    [Lin, Weiwei]Fuzhou Univ, Dept Water Resources & Harbor Engn, Fuzhou 350100, Peoples R China

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Source :

APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL

Year: 2025

Issue: 4

Volume: 15

2 . 5 0 0

JCR@2023

CAS Journal Grade:4

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 1

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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