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author:

Zhu, Hansong (Zhu, Hansong.) [1] | Chen, Si (Chen, Si.) [2] | Qin, Weixia (Qin, Weixia.) [3] | Aynur, Joldosh (Aynur, Joldosh.) [4] | Chen, Yuyan (Chen, Yuyan.) [5] | Wang, Xiaoying (Wang, Xiaoying.) [6] | Chen, Kaizhi (Chen, Kaizhi.) [7] (Scholars:陈开志) | Xie, Zhonghang (Xie, Zhonghang.) [8] | Li, Lingfang (Li, Lingfang.) [9] | Liu, Yu (Liu, Yu.) [10] | Chen, Guangmin (Chen, Guangmin.) [11] | Ou, Jianming (Ou, Jianming.) [12] | Zheng, Kuicheng (Zheng, Kuicheng.) [13]

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Objective At different times, public health faces various challenges and the degree of intervention measures varies. The research on the impact and prediction of meteorology factors on influenza is increasing gradually, however, there is currently no evidence on whether its research results are affected by different periods. This study aims to provide limited evidence to reveal this issue. Methods Daily data on influencing factors and influenza in Xiamen were divided into three parts: overall period (phase AB), non-COVID-19 epidemic period (phase A), and COVID-19 epidemic period (phase B). The association between influencing factors and influenza was analysed using generalized additive models (GAMs). The excess risk (ER) was used to represent the percentage change in influenza as the interquartile interval (IQR) of meteorology factors increases. The 7-day average daily influenza cases were predicted using the combination of bi-directional long short memory (Bi-LSTM) and random forest (RF) through multi-step rolling input of the daily multifactor values of the previous 7-day. Results In periods A and AB, air temperature below 22 degrees C was a risk factor for influenza. However, in phase B, temperature showed a U-shaped effect on it. Relative humidity had a more significant cumulative effect on influenza in phase AB than in phase A (peak: accumulate 14d, AB: ER = 281.54, 95% CI = 245.47 similar to 321.37; A: ER = 120.48, 95% CI = 100.37 similar to 142.60). Compared to other age groups, children aged 4-12 were more affected by pressure, precipitation, sunshine, and day light, while those aged >= 13 were more affected by the accumulation of humidity over multiple days. The accuracy of predicting influenza was highest in phase A and lowest in phase B. Conclusions The varying degrees of intervention measures adopted during different phases led to significant differences in the impact of meteorology factors on influenza and in the influenza prediction. In association studies of respiratory infectious diseases, especially influenza, and environmental factors, it is advisable to exclude periods with more external interventions to reduce interference with environmental factors and influenza related research, or to refine the model to accommodate the alterations brought about by intervention measures. In addition, the RF-Bi-LSTM model has good predictive performance for influenza.

Keyword:

Bi-LSTM COVID-19 Influenza Meteorological Random forest (RF)

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhu, Hansong]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xie, Zhonghang]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Li, Lingfang]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Chen, Guangmin]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Ou, Jianming]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Zheng, Kuicheng]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Chen, Si]Fujian Inst Meteorol Sci, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Qin, Weixia]Xiamen Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Xiamen 361003, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Aynur, Joldosh]Xiamen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Xiamen 361100, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Wang, Xiaoying]Xiamen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Xiamen 361100, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 11 ] [Chen, Yuyan]Fujian Prov Judicial Drug Rehabil Hosp, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 12 ] [Chen, Kaizhi]Fuzhou Univ, Fuzhou 350108, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 13 ] [Liu, Yu]Xiangnan Univ, Chenzhou 423001, Hunan, Peoples R China
  • [ 14 ] [Zhu, Hansong]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 15 ] [Xie, Zhonghang]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 16 ] [Chen, Guangmin]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 17 ] [Ou, Jianming]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 18 ] [Zheng, Kuicheng]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 19 ] [Chen, Si]Fujian Key Lab Severe Weather, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 20 ] [Chen, Si]China Meteorol Adm, Key Lab Straits Severe Weather, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Zhu, Hansong]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China;;[Chen, Guangmin]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China;;[Ou, Jianming]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China;;[Zheng, Kuicheng]Fujian Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Fuzhou 350012, Fujian, Peoples R China;;[Liu, Yu]Xiangnan Univ, Chenzhou 423001, Hunan, Peoples R China;;[Zhu, Hansong]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China;;[Chen, Guangmin]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China;;[Ou, Jianming]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China;;[Zheng, Kuicheng]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Fuzhou 350011, Fujian, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Year: 2024

Issue: 1

Volume: 24

3 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 5

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