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author:

Zheng, Lingming (Zheng, Lingming.) [1] | Shu, Shengwen (Shu, Shengwen.) [2] (Scholars:舒胜文) | Chen, Bin (Chen, Bin.) [3] | Wu, Han (Wu, Han.) [4] | Huang, Jianye (Huang, Jianye.) [5] | Qian, Jian (Qian, Jian.) [6]

Indexed by:

EI Scopus PKU CSCD

Abstract:

The 10 kV poles are vulnerable to severe typhoons due to the low wind-resistance, and prediction for the amount of 10 kV damaged poles is important for the deployment of preparedness plans and the allocation of emergency resources before the disaster. Consequently, we proposed a prediction method for the amount of 10 kV damaged poles under severe typhoon environment based on meshing and support vector machine. Based on the theory of regional natural disaster system, a feature set representing the influence on the 10 kV poles, including disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment and disaster-affected body, was constructed and meshed to 3 km×3 km grid units as the input of support vector machine regression (SVR) model. Then, the amount of 10 kV damaged poles in each grid unit was taken as the output of the SVR model. Thereby, a prediction model for the amount of 10 kV damaged poles under severe typhoon environment was established. Meanwhile, the model was adopted to predict the amount of 10 kV damaged poles in a certain area during the Typhoon Meranti (no. 1614), and the predicted value is significantly correlated with the actual damage, which validated the proposed model. This method provides a possible way to predict the amount of 10 kV damaged poles under severe typhoon environment. © 2020, High Voltage Engineering Editorial Department of CEPRI. All right reserved.

Keyword:

Disasters Forecasting Hurricanes Poles Predictive analytics Support vector machines Support vector regression Vectors

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zheng, Lingming]College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 2 ] [Shu, Shengwen]College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen, Bin]College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 4 ] [Chen, Bin]Electric Power Research Institute of Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd., Fuzhou; 350007, China
  • [ 5 ] [Wu, Han]Electric Power Research Institute of Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd., Fuzhou; 350007, China
  • [ 6 ] [Huang, Jianye]Electric Power Research Institute of Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd., Fuzhou; 350007, China
  • [ 7 ] [Qian, Jian]Electric Power Research Institute of Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd., Fuzhou; 350007, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 舒胜文

    [shu, shengwen]college of electrical engineering and automation, fuzhou university, fuzhou; 350108, china

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Source :

High Voltage Engineering

ISSN: 1003-6520

CN: 42-1239/TM

Year: 2020

Issue: 1

Volume: 46

Page: 42-50

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 21

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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