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author:

Chen, Dewang (Chen, Dewang.) [1] | Zhang, Jianhua (Zhang, Jianhua.) [2] | Jiang, Shixiong (Jiang, Shixiong.) [3]

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Forecasting the short-term metro ridership is an important issue for operation management of metro systems. However, it cannot be solved well by the single long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network alone for the irregular fluctuation caused by various factors. This paper proposes a hybrid algorithm (STL-LSTM) which combines the addition mode of Seasonal-Trend decomposition based on Loess (STL) and the LSTM neural network to mitigate the influences of irregular fluctuation and improve the performance of short-term metro ridership prediction. First, the original series is decomposed into three sub-series by the addition mode of STL. Then, the LSTM neural network is employed to predict each decomposed series. Finally, all the predicted outputs are merged as the overall output. The results show that the STL-LSTM model can achieve higher accuracy than the single LSTM model, support vector regression (SVR), and the EMD-LSTM model which combines the empirical mode decomposition and the LSTM neural network.

Keyword:

Fluctuations Forecasting Logic gates long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network Market research Neural networks Predictive models seasonal-trend decomposition based on loess (STL) Short-term metro ridership prediction Support vector machines

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Chen, Dewang]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Jianhua]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Jiang, Shixiong]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Chen, Dewang]Fuzhou Univ, Key Lab Intelligent Metro Univ Fujian Prov, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Jiang, Shixiong]Fuzhou Univ, Key Lab Intelligent Metro Univ Fujian Prov, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 江世雄

    [Jiang, Shixiong]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China;;[Jiang, Shixiong]Fuzhou Univ, Key Lab Intelligent Metro Univ Fujian Prov, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

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Source :

IEEE ACCESS

ISSN: 2169-3536

Year: 2020

Volume: 8

Page: 91181-91187

3 . 3 6 7

JCR@2020

3 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:132

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 63

SCOPUS Cited Count: 77

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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