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Major public emergencies, especially infectious diseases and other major public health emergencies, have always been a threat to human survival and health, economic and social progress and development. In 2020, the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia on a global scale has severely impacted China and the world economy. Studying the impact of major public health emergencies on China's macroeconomic operation is crucial for the next step in epidemic prevention and control, and is of great significance for China's steady economic recovery and high-quality development.Based on the VAR model, this paper uses the data of the number of new infections per day of the novel coronavirus epidemic, as well as the index data of the percentage rise and fall of the all-finger pharmaceutical index, turnover and turnover rate in the same period. This paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on China's macro economy. First, the VAR model was established by selecting the data of the daily number of new COVID-19 infections and the relevant indicators of the all-finger pharmaceutical index in the same period. Starting from the newly confirmed number of COVID-19 cases and the changes of the pharmaceutical stock market, the impact on the macro economy represented by the pharmaceutical stock market in the two years after the outbreak of COVID-19 was analyzed. Secondly, based on Granger causality test, the causal relationship between different indicators was analyzed. Finally, impulse response function was selected to analyze the dynamic relationship between different indicators. The results show that the number of newly confirmed cases is the Granger causality cause of the rise and fall of the pharmaceutical stock market, that is, the rise and fall of the pharmaceutical stock market is affected by the lag of the number of newly confirmed cases. Moreover, when the variable of newly confirmed number was affected, the rise and fall of the pharmaceutical stock market first showed a rapid rise, and then the growth rate slowed down steadily. © 2024 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).
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Year: 2025
Page: 265-269
Language: English
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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
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30 Days PV: 0
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