In　addressing　global　climate　change　and　promoting　economic　growth,　achieving　a　comprehensive　carbon　balance　at　the　county　level　is　vital　for　sustainable　development.　However,　most　studies　focus　on　the　balance　between　carbon　emissions　and　sequestration　(CESB),　neglecting　the　intricate　ecological　and　economic　carbon　balance　(EECB)　at　this　scale.　This　study　introduces　an　analytical　framework　that　couples　economic　development　with　ecological　protection　by　using　coupling　coordination　degree　analysis,　carbon　balance　zoning,　and　the　Markov-PLUS　model.　Taking　Jiangxi　Province　as　a　case　study,　we　evaluate　the　spatio-temporal　dynamics　of　carbon　balance　from　2000–2020　and　predict　future　trends　for　2030　under　four　potential　development　scenarios.　Results　reveal　significant　regional　variations　in　CESB　over　the　two　decades,　which　primarily　exhibit　net　carbon　emission.　Meanwhile,　the　continuous　decline　in　EECB　highlights　the　need　for　balanced　economic　and　ecological　development.　By　2030,　the　land　use＇s　carbon　sequestration　capacity　is　expected　to　increase　under　different　scenarios,　leading　to　a　‘middle-high,　sides-low’　spatial　pattern　in　CESB.　These　findings　are　crucial　for　policymakers　in　devising　strategies　for　sustainable　regional　development.　©　2025　The　Author(s).　Published　by　Informa　UK　Limited,　trading　as　Taylor　&　Francis　Group.