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author:

Dong, Honghong (Dong, Honghong.) [1] | Huang, Qing (Huang, Qing.) [2] | Zhang, Fangyi (Zhang, Fangyi.) [3] | Lu, Xuehe (Lu, Xuehe.) [4] | Zhang, Qian (Zhang, Qian.) [5] | Cao, Jianjun (Cao, Jianjun.) [6] | Gen, Ling (Gen, Ling.) [7] | Li, Ning (Li, Ning.) [8]

Indexed by:

SCIE

Abstract:

Land use change is one of the crucial factors affecting carbon emissions. The continuously increasing CO2 and global warming have raised concerns about carbon emission reduction in the process of urbanization. In this research, the Markov and multi-objective optimization models were conducted to predict the demands for land use in Nanjing in 2030 and 2060 under the natural growth (NG) and minimum carbon emission (MCE) scenarios to coordinate the needs of economic development, ecological protection and food security as well as the target of carbon emissions reduction in the future. The spatial distribution of land use simulated by the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model was used to evaluate the effects of future land use on carbon emissions. The results showed that 1) The demands for each type of land use in the NG scenario were significantly different from those in the MCE scenario. Considering the goals of food security and ecological protection in the future, the total amount of cultivated land would not decrease in the MCE scenario, and the area of construction land was significantly smaller than that in the NG scenario. 2) The carbon emissions of Nanjing under the MCE scenario would decrease by 3.94 and 11.80 million tons in 2030 and 2060, respectively, accounting for 9.97% and 27.17% of the total carbon emissions. The optimization of land use patterns can effectively reduce carbon emissions in the process of urbanization.

Keyword:

carbon emissions FLUS model land use change Markov model multi-objective optimization model

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Dong, Honghong]Nanjing Xiaozhuang Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Huang, Qing]Nanjing Xiaozhuang Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Cao, Jianjun]Nanjing Xiaozhuang Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Gen, Ling]Nanjing Xiaozhuang Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Li, Ning]Nanjing Xiaozhuang Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Dong, Honghong]Fuzhou Univ, Acad Digital China, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Zhang, Fangyi]Nanjing Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Publ Adm, Nanjing, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Lu, Xuehe]Suzhou Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci & Geomatics Engn, Suzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Zhang, Qian]Nanjing Tech Univ, Sch Geomatics Sci & Technol, Nanjing, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Zhang, Qian]Nanjing Univ, Int Inst Earth Syst Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China

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Source :

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

ISSN: 2296-665X

Year: 2022

Volume: 10

4 . 6

JCR@2022

3 . 3 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI HC Threshold:64

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:3

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 7

SCOPUS Cited Count: 9

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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