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author:

Wang, Lizeng (Wang, Lizeng.) [1] | Cheng, Shifen (Cheng, Shifen.) [2] | Lu, Feng (Lu, Feng.) [3]

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Spatio-temporal prediction aims to forecast location or time-related changes in the physical world with disciplinary knowledge and historical data. Ensemble learning strategies that integrate multiple base learners can leverage the advantages of different models and thus gain wide attention in the field of spatio-temporal prediction. However, existing methods often ignore the unified expression of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the ensemble process and fail to clarify the mechanisms of model integration under these constraints, limiting the predictive ability and the interpretability of ensemble models. Therefore, this study proposed a Matrix-Informed Ensemble Learning Method (MI-EL) for interpretable spatio-temporal prediction. The core idea of this method is to decompose the spatio-temporal heterogeneous ensemble weight matrix into the multiplication of the spatial and temporal factor matrix. By constructing a spatio-temporal embedding learning module, it utilizes spatial associations and temporal attributes of the samples to solve the spatial and temporal factor matrices, thereby achieving a unified expression of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the ensemble process. On this basis, interpretable spatial and temporal score vectors are constructed for explicitly expressing the influence intensities and response rules of different base learners under conditions of spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Experiments on traffic flow, traffic speed and air quality prediction tasks show that the proposed method outperforms eight existing ensemble methods in the prediction accuracies at different time steps. Additionally, it effectively identifies the performance patterns of base learners at different spatio-temporal units by assigning higher spatiotemporal scores to better-performing base learners, thereby achieving superior prediction results.

Keyword:

Ensemble learning Explainable artificial intelligence Matrix decomposition Spatio-temporal heterogeneity Spatio-temporal prediction

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Lizeng]Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Cheng, Shifen]Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Lu, Feng]Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Wang, Lizeng]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Cheng, Shifen]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Lu, Feng]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Lu, Feng]Fuzhou Univ, Acad Digital China, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Lu, Feng]Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Resou, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Cheng, Shifen]Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;;[Cheng, Shifen]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS

ISSN: 0950-7051

Year: 2025

Volume: 309

7 . 2 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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