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author:

Zhong, Chen (Zhong, Chen.) [1]

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Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

The kernel distribution estimator (KDE) is proposed based on residuals of the innovation distribution in the autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) time series. The deviation between KDE and the innovation distribution function is shown to converge to the Brownian bridge, leading to the construction of a Kolmogorov-Smirnov smooth simultaneous confidence band for the innovation distribution function. Additionally, an empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF) based on prediction residuals is introduced for the multi-step-ahead prediction error distribution function. This empirical process weakly converges to a Gaussian process with a specific covariance function. Furthermore, a quantile estimator is derived from the empirical CDF of prediction residuals, and multi-step-ahead prediction intervals (PIs) for future observations are established using these estimated quantiles. The PIs achieve the nominal prediction level asymptotically for the finite variance ARMA model. Simulation studies and analysis of crude oil price data confirm the validity of the asymptotic theory.

Keyword:

Brownian bridge empirical process kernel distribution estimator prediction interval simultaneous confidence band

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhong, Chen]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Fuzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

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    [Zhong, Chen]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Fuzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

JOURNAL OF NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS

ISSN: 1048-5252

Year: 2024

Issue: 2

Volume: 37

Page: 384-410

0 . 8 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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