Concrete-filled　steel　tubular　(CFST)　columns　are　increasingly　used　around　the　world　due　to　their　significant　structural　and　economic　advantages.　Although　considerable　research　and　several　experimental　tests　have　been　carried　out　on　CFST　col-umns,　there　are　no　mechanics-based　probabilistic　models　of　their　axial　capacity.　The　present　paper　proposes　a　mechanics-based　probabilistic　capacity　model　for　the　assessment　of　the　ultimate　axial　capacity　of　CFST　columns.　The　accuracy　of　the　numerical　predictions　obtained　with　the　proposed　formulation　is　compared　with　that　of　existing　capacity　equations　already　in　use　within　technical　standards　and　available　in　the　literature.　©　2024　The　Editor(s).