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author:

Liu, Dinggao (Liu, Dinggao.) [1] | Chen, Kaijie (Chen, Kaijie.) [2] | Cai, Yi (Cai, Yi.) [3] | Tang, Zhenpeng (Tang, Zhenpeng.) [4]

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

This paper proposes an interpretable deep learning method based on generative data augmentation for forecasting carbon allowance prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) Phase 4. Utilizing TimeGAN, we generate near -real expanded data to enhance the training sets. Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) is used to quantify the contribution of impact factors. The results show that the augmentation effectively improved the prediction accuracy. Interpretability analysis reveals that Brent crude oil, NBP natural gas, and Rotterdam coal are the top three contributors. Our findings offer a strong approach for the new phase price forecasting, helping market participants and policymakers in informed decision -making.

Keyword:

Carbon prices Data augmentation Interpretability Multivariate time series Temporal Fusion Transformer TimeGAN

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Liu, Dinggao]Fujian Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Forestry, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Cai, Yi]Fujian Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Tang, Zhenpeng]Fujian Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Chen, Kaijie]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Tang, Zhenpeng]Fujian Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China

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Source :

FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS

ISSN: 1544-6123

Year: 2024

Volume: 61

7 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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