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author:

Liu, D. (Liu, D..) [1] | Chen, K. (Chen, K..) [2] | Cai, Y. (Cai, Y..) [3] | Tang, Z. (Tang, Z..) [4]

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Abstract:

This paper proposes an interpretable deep learning method based on generative data augmentation for forecasting carbon allowance prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) Phase 4. Utilizing TimeGAN, we generate near-real expanded data to enhance the training sets. Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) is used to quantify the contribution of impact factors. The results show that the augmentation effectively improved the prediction accuracy. Interpretability analysis reveals that Brent crude oil, NBP natural gas, and Rotterdam coal are the top three contributors. Our findings offer a strong approach for the new phase price forecasting, helping market participants and policymakers in informed decision-making. © 2024

Keyword:

Carbon prices Data augmentation Interpretability Multivariate time series Temporal Fusion Transformer TimeGAN

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Liu D.]College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China
  • [ 2 ] [Chen K.]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350002, China
  • [ 3 ] [Cai Y.]College of Economics and Management, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China
  • [ 4 ] [Tang Z.]College of Economics and Management, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China

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Source :

Finance Research Letters

ISSN: 1544-6123

Year: 2024

Volume: 61

7 . 4 0 0

JCR@2023

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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

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Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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