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author:

Lin, Binlong (Lin, Binlong.) [1] | Wu, Yi (Wu, Yi.) [2] | Wu, Juanjuan (Wu, Juanjuan.) [3] | Yang, Chenghu (Yang, Chenghu.) [4] (Scholars:阳成虎)

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EI

Abstract:

To improve the accuracy of demand forecasting for new electronic products, especially in scenarios with limited historical data, a novel forecasting model was proposed in this study which integrated K-means based on Euclidian distance, Multi-layer perceptron algorithm, and Quantile Regression with Gradient Boosted Trees (KEM-QRGBT). The model also incorporated grid search with K-fold cross-validation to enable the adaptive selection of the optimal parameters for product data. Additionally, the KEM-QRGBT model, which can balance the intricacies of learning parameter patterns with its ability to quantify demand uncertainty, exhibited proficiency in quantifying the uncertainty inherent in demand forecasting. Using a case study from a manufacturing enterprise in Turkey, the effectiveness of the model was validated. Results demonstrate that, for new electronic products with limited historical data, the KEM-QRGBT model with adaptive parameter selection improves demand forecasting accuracy, outperforming benchmark methods, and other machine learning models. The proposed algorithm provides a strong evidence for the demand forecasting of new electronic products, particularly in cases where historical data is limited. © 2023 School of Science, IHU. All Rights Reserved.

Keyword:

Deep learning E-learning Forecasting K-means clustering Learning systems Life cycle Trees (mathematics)

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Lin, Binlong]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wu, Yi]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 3 ] [Wu, Juanjuan]School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 4 ] [Yang, Chenghu]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China

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Source :

Journal of Engineering Science and Technology Review

ISSN: 1791-9320

Year: 2023

Issue: 6

Volume: 16

Page: 90-97

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 3

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