Based　on　the　analysis　of　random　phenomena,　random　variables,　and　random　processes,　this　paper　constructs　a　Markov　chain-based　model　for　evaluating　the　effectiveness　of　music　teaching　using　Markov　chains.　Aiming　at　the　core　literacy　of　college　music　education,　a　new　education　model　is　proposed　to　cultivate　students＇　comprehensive　music　literacy　and　transform　the　method　of　college　music　education.　Traditional　evaluation　methods　and　the　Markov　chain　model　are　used　to　analyze　data　examples　for　the　new　model　of　music　education.　The　probability　of　transferring　the　number　of　students　whose　first　score　was　on　the　89.9-80　scale　to　the　100-90　scale　was　0.5115,　greater　than　the　probability　value　of　0.3650　for　those　still　on　the　89.9-80　scale.　The　transfer　matrix　of　the　experimental　class　was　shifted　to　the　left　as　a　whole,　indicating　a　high　degree　of　student　progress.　　©　2023　Xiaoning　Wang　et　al.,　published　by　Sciendo　2023.