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author:

Ke, R. (Ke, R..) [1] | Wu, S. (Wu, S..) [2] (Scholars:吴升) | Ke, W. (Ke, W..) [3]

Indexed by:

Scopus PKU CSCD

Abstract:

With the rise of bicycle sharing network, "shared-bicycle + subway" and "shared-bicycle + bus" have become the main mode of urban commuting, but the "tidal effect" of shared-bicycle makes it difficult to manage and deploy resources. Therefore, exploring the "tidal law" of shared- bicycle and accurately predicting the demand for borrowing and returning bicycles at parking areas (electronic fences) are important for the orderly and standardized development of shared-bicycle and the optimization of the riding experience and environment. Based on the spatial data of shared-bicycle orders and electronic fences, our research proposes a spatial-temporal model for identifying tidal shared-bicycle stops and analyzing their tidal spatial-temporal characteristics. Our model defines the tidal shared-bicycle stops as electric fences with lacking-bike/lacking-parking due to a large number of shared-bicycles borrowed/returned for a short time. The electric fences are then classified according to their status at a certain period and assigned different lacking-bike/lacking-parking indexes. The results show that our spatial- temporal model can accurately identify the tidal shared- bicycle stops at a specific period. Moreover, based on the spatial-temporal data such as shared bicycle orders, city information points (POI), road, population, land-use type, temperature, and wind speed, and considering the correlation of electronic fences at the local area, we propose a K Nearest Neighbors (KNN)- LightGBM model to predict the sharing demand of shared bicycles, which includes: (1) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to extract characteristics; (2) The KNN algorithm is used to calculate the correlation information of electronic fences at the local area; (3) We integrate the characteristic vectors extracted by PCA and the correlation information of electronic fences as input, and use the LightGBM model to predict the sharing demand of bicycles; (4) We evaluate the importance of the characteristics that affect the sharing demand. The results show that the proposed KNN- LightGBM is better than the common machine learning methods in demand prediction at different time scales. The mean values of RMSE and MAE using our proposed model are the smallest and the mean values of R2 and r are the largest. We use the KNN algorithm to calculate the correlation of electronic fences, which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Compared with LightGBM, the RMSE and MAE of KNN- LightGBM are reduced by 10% and 11%, respectively, and R2 and r are improved by 3% and 4%, respectively. Based on the importance assessment of characteristics, the historical data of shared- bicycle orders are the most important for the demand prediction, followed by the distance to the nearest public transportation stations. Our study demonstrates the potential of model. © 2023 Research Institute of Beijing. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

demand forecasting electronic fence machine learning shared-bicycle spatial-temporal model tidal characteristic Xiamen

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Ke R.]The Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350003, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wu S.]The Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350003, China
  • [ 3 ] [Ke W.]The Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350003, China

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Source :

地球信息科学学报

ISSN: 1560-8999

CN: 11-5809/P

Year: 2023

Issue: 4

Volume: 25

Page: 741-753

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 5

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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