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author:

Li, Pengbo (Li, Pengbo.) [1] | Tian, Lijun (Tian, Lijun.) [2] (Scholars:田丽君) | Huang, Wenbin (Huang, Wenbin.) [3]

Indexed by:

EI PKU

Abstract:

Exploring the motivation and rules of population migration can help the government management departments allocate resources efficiently and make policies effectively, so as to guide the residents to distribute rationally, thus promoting the coordinated development among different regions. Aiming at the problem that the traditional gravity model lacks a constraint on the upper limit of population migration, an improved population migration gravity model is proposed based on population migration push-pull theory and system dynamics. The model assumes that urban residents will make comprehensive decisions regarding expected income, employment opportunities, transportation resistance, and housing prices to make relocation decisions. The cases of Suzhou Industrial Park and Shenzhen are introduced to prove the validity of the model. Finally, the sensitivity analysis relating to several policy factors shows that the number of population migration will be higher for a lower traffic resistance, higher expected income ratio, and smaller housing price growth. Therefore, the transportation planning department should carry out the rail transit construction and resource allocation plan by considering the characteristics of proposed factors influencing the population migration, to optimize the development among different regions. © 2021, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.

Keyword:

Housing Population dynamics Population statistics Sensitivity analysis System theory Urban transportation

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Pengbo]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350116, China
  • [ 2 ] [Tian, Lijun]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350116, China
  • [ 3 ] [Huang, Wenbin]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350116, China

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Source :

System Engineering Theory and Practice

ISSN: 1000-6788

Year: 2021

Issue: 7

Volume: 41

Page: 1722-1731

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 3

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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