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Forecasting carbon prices in China's pilot carbon market: A multi-source information approach with conditional generative adversarial networks SCIE
期刊论文 | 2024 , 359 | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
WoS CC Cited Count: 2
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Abstract :

In recent years, the Chinese government has actively pursued the implementation of its 'dual -carbon ' strategy, concurrently establishing a national carbon emissions trading market. Accurate carbon price forecasts have become essential for policymakers and investors involved in related initiatives. Nevertheless, influenced by the interaction of various information sources, carbon trading prices exhibit non -linear and non-stationary characteristics, posing challenges for accurate prediction. Current research, centered around deep learning models, predominantly emphasizes intricate network structures, optimisation algorithms, and data decomposition. However, these models face a developmental bottleneck in extracting carbon price features and efficiently leveraging multi-source information. Consequently, novel ideas and methodologies are imperative. This study focuses on the Hubei and Guangdong regional carbon markets as research subjects. It develops a prediction framework based on a generative adversarial network model to capture the time -series change characteristics of carbon trading prices and the condition matrix. First, a generator prediction model is used to obtain the input matrix features and extract the time series features through a complex network to predict the carbon price data at the next moment using a fully connected layer. Second, a discriminator is utilised to distinguish between the actual values and the predicted values. The generator and the discriminator undergo continuous iterative training and alternate optimisation. This process aims to bring the generated prediction distributions closer to the actual sample data, resulting in more accurate final predictions. The empirical results convincingly show that the proposed model achieves unparalleled forecasting precision in both markets. The proposed model demonstrates the lowest MAE (0.804 and 0.839), lowest MAPE (0.023 and 0.018), lowest RMSE (1.174 and 1.383), and highest R 2 (0.971 and 0.989) across both markets, indicating superior predictive accuracy. Additionally, the proposed model consistently outshines traditional forecasting approaches across one-step, five-step, and ten-step forecasts, affirming its robustness and universal applicability in modelling carbon trading price series. The findings suggest that this study can aid policymakers in optimizing the carbon pricing system. Furthermore, it offers a reference for policymakers to comprehensively leverage external factors, such as regulating traditional energy prices, leveraging international carbon market experiences, and monitoring economic dynamics. This comprehensive strategy can streamline the exploration and management of carbon price fluctuations, ultimately strengthening the carbon market 's risk control system.

Keyword :

Carbon emissions trading market Carbon emissions trading market Carbon price prediction Carbon price prediction Generative adversarial network Generative adversarial network Multi-source information Multi-source information

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GB/T 7714 Huang, Zhigang , Zhang, Weilan . Forecasting carbon prices in China's pilot carbon market: A multi-source information approach with conditional generative adversarial networks [J]. | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT , 2024 , 359 .
MLA Huang, Zhigang 等. "Forecasting carbon prices in China's pilot carbon market: A multi-source information approach with conditional generative adversarial networks" . | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 359 (2024) .
APA Huang, Zhigang , Zhang, Weilan . Forecasting carbon prices in China's pilot carbon market: A multi-source information approach with conditional generative adversarial networks . | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT , 2024 , 359 .
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个人金融数据收益分享视角下央行数字货币的新计息设计
期刊论文 | 2024 , PageCount-页数: 10 (05) , 106-115 | 东南学术
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Abstract :

中国央行数字货币的推广已有五年,但其在公众中的持有量和交易量仍处于较低水平。与央行数字货币的其他设计特征相比,计息设计是影响公众持有和使用央行数字货币的关键因素。然而,从传统的货币收益视角进行的央行数字货币的计息设计,会对银行存款产生挤兑风险。个人金融数据收益分享为探索央行数字货币的新计息设计及其策略提供了新的视角。与传统的货币收益计息设计相比,基于数据收益的新计息设计能有效避免对银行存款的挤兑风险,破解公众持有央行数字货币的零收益难题,促进央行数字货币推广。

Keyword :

个人金融数据收益分享 个人金融数据收益分享 央行数字货币 央行数字货币 计息设计 计息设计 银行挤兑 银行挤兑

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GB/T 7714 黄双双 , 黄志刚 , 唐旻 . 个人金融数据收益分享视角下央行数字货币的新计息设计 [J]. | 东南学术 , 2024 , PageCount-页数: 10 (05) : 106-115 .
MLA 黄双双 等. "个人金融数据收益分享视角下央行数字货币的新计息设计" . | 东南学术 PageCount-页数: 10 . 05 (2024) : 106-115 .
APA 黄双双 , 黄志刚 , 唐旻 . 个人金融数据收益分享视角下央行数字货币的新计息设计 . | 东南学术 , 2024 , PageCount-页数: 10 (05) , 106-115 .
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FPoR: Fair proof-of-reputation consensus for blockchain SCIE
期刊论文 | 2023 , 9 (1) , 45-50 | ICT EXPRESS
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Abstract :

Current consensus protocols for permissionless blockchain cannot balance security, performance and centralization issues. In the paper, we present a reputation based consensus, FPoR, which combines reputation, committee based consensus, PBFT, reward and penalization mechanisms. FPoR can balance scalability, security and decentralization, and promote fairness, increase participation and strengthen security. Experiment results show that FPoR is with high performance and scalability, which can be used for permissionless blockchain. FPoR can also be extended to permissioned blockchain applications. (c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of The Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Keyword :

Blockchain Blockchain Consensus protocol Consensus protocol Fairness Fairness PoR PoR Reputation Reputation

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GB/T 7714 Zhang, Tao , Huang, Zhigang . FPoR: Fair proof-of-reputation consensus for blockchain [J]. | ICT EXPRESS , 2023 , 9 (1) : 45-50 .
MLA Zhang, Tao 等. "FPoR: Fair proof-of-reputation consensus for blockchain" . | ICT EXPRESS 9 . 1 (2023) : 45-50 .
APA Zhang, Tao , Huang, Zhigang . FPoR: Fair proof-of-reputation consensus for blockchain . | ICT EXPRESS , 2023 , 9 (1) , 45-50 .
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央行数字货币与第三方支付是否是竞争与取代关系?——基于双边市场理论视角 CSCD PKU
期刊论文 | 2023 , 43 (03) , 717-737 | 系统科学与数学
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Abstract :

中国央行数字货币主要用于国内零售支付需求,与第三方支付既相似、互补又存在差异,而各方对央行数字货币与第三方支付的竞争与取代问题看法不一.基于双边市场理论,从支付竞争的视角对上述问题进行分析.结果表明,央行发行数字货币会加剧支付市场竞争,引起第三方支付利润降低和平台过多收集隐私数据问题;当两种支付工具存在明显差异时,无论央行数字货币处于发展初期或发展稳定期,央行数字货币都不会取代第三方支付,并且二者在用户方面的竞争主要由支付平台的内在价值和支付服务质量决定.另外,通过分析央行数字货币补贴竞争策略对支付竞争的影响,发现当前的补贴竞争策略是有效的,并且在一定条件下,单边补贴策略是央行数字货币推广的一种优势策略.研究不仅丰富了双边市场理论,也为支付市场反垄断执法和央行数字货币的推广流通提供理论依据与实践启发.

Keyword :

央行数字货币 央行数字货币 支付竞争 支付竞争 消费者隐私 消费者隐私 第三方支付 第三方支付 补贴推广 补贴推广

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GB/T 7714 黄志刚 , 黄双双 , 唐勇 . 央行数字货币与第三方支付是否是竞争与取代关系?——基于双边市场理论视角 [J]. | 系统科学与数学 , 2023 , 43 (03) : 717-737 .
MLA 黄志刚 等. "央行数字货币与第三方支付是否是竞争与取代关系?——基于双边市场理论视角" . | 系统科学与数学 43 . 03 (2023) : 717-737 .
APA 黄志刚 , 黄双双 , 唐勇 . 央行数字货币与第三方支付是否是竞争与取代关系?——基于双边市场理论视角 . | 系统科学与数学 , 2023 , 43 (03) , 717-737 .
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资本市场定价对企业劳动投资效率的影响研究 CSSCI PKU
期刊论文 | 2023 , 14 (05) , 33-46 | 亚太经济
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Abstract :

理论分析发现,资本市场定价偏离其内在价值会影响企业劳动投资效率,但在影响方向上存在促进还是抑制的不确定性。基此,利用2007—2019年中国A股非金融上市公司数据研究发现:实证结果支持了效率促进假说,资本市场错误估值每增加一个标准差,企业劳动投资效率将提高4.51%;机制检验表明,股价信息性和股权融资成本是两条促进作用渠道,前者表明管理者可以从股价中学习新的信息进而提高劳动投资决策效率,后者表明股价通过影响企业融资成本而提高劳动投资效率;资本市场错误估值既会抑制劳动过度投资,又会抑制劳动投资不足,对企业劳动投资效率的异质性影响表现为在股价高估、融资约束高和低壳溢价促进效应更显著。

Keyword :

劳动投资效率 劳动投资效率 股价信息性 股价信息性 股价融资效应 股价融资效应 资本市场定价 资本市场定价 错误估值 错误估值

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GB/T 7714 于然海 , 黄志刚 , 季国民 et al. 资本市场定价对企业劳动投资效率的影响研究 [J]. | 亚太经济 , 2023 , 14 (05) : 33-46 .
MLA 于然海 et al. "资本市场定价对企业劳动投资效率的影响研究" . | 亚太经济 14 . 05 (2023) : 33-46 .
APA 于然海 , 黄志刚 , 季国民 , 唐勇 . 资本市场定价对企业劳动投资效率的影响研究 . | 亚太经济 , 2023 , 14 (05) , 33-46 .
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金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展 CSSCI CSCD PKU
期刊论文 | 2023 , 31 (11) , 151-164 | 中国管理科学
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"双循环"新格局构建下,国内国际双循环相互促进机制构建对优化国内大循环意义非凡.本文通过考察对外直接投资(OFDI)这一外循环因素对金融科技与经济高质量发展之间关系的影响,从双循环相互促进的视角为经济高质量发展目标的实现提供新的思路.理论模型的研究结果表明,金融领域过度投资时,加强金融科技创新成果的推广应用,促进金融科技外溢效应的发挥,可有效提升金融效率并促进经济高质量发展.这一结论在动态空间自回归检验中得到验证:当前金融科技对促进中国经济高质量发展尚未发挥显著作用,但其在中国对"一带一路"沿线国家和地区的直接投资领域的应用却可以推动其发挥更大的经济效应.因此,抓住"一带一路"国际合作机遇,积极推进金融科技国际合作、加快金融科技成果应用转化,强化双循环相互促进机制,是引导金融科技规范健康发展、更好服务实体经济的一条有效路径.

Keyword :

动态空间自回归模型 动态空间自回归模型 对外直接投资 对外直接投资 熵权TOPSIS 熵权TOPSIS 经济高质量发展 经济高质量发展 金融科技 金融科技

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GB/T 7714 刘丹阳 , 黄志刚 . 金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展 [J]. | 中国管理科学 , 2023 , 31 (11) : 151-164 .
MLA 刘丹阳 et al. "金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展" . | 中国管理科学 31 . 11 (2023) : 151-164 .
APA 刘丹阳 , 黄志刚 . 金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展 . | 中国管理科学 , 2023 , 31 (11) , 151-164 .
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“一带一路”沿线国家的金融机构国际合作指数构建与影响因素分析 CSSCI PKU
期刊论文 | 2023 , 35 (10) , 33-44 | 管理评论
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“一带一路”建设带来了供不应求的金融服务需求,而推进“一带一路”沿线国家金融机构国际合作则是构建供求匹配的“一带一路”金融服务体系的重要路径之一。本文以“一带一路”沿线55个国家为样本,以主成分分析法构建了“一带一路”沿线国家金融机构国际合作指数,度量并比较不同国家和地区与中国金融机构国际合作程度;然后分别从政治与安全、经济与贸易、文化与教育三个方面选取指标,分析“一带一路”沿线国家金融机构国际合作受这些因素的影响程度。结果表明,“一带一路”沿线国家金融机构国际合作水平两极分化严重。“一带一路”沿线国家金融机构国际合作程度主要受“一带一路”沿线国家军费支出、制度距离、经济自由度差异、对中国直接投资额以及码头货柜吞吐量的影响。其中,中国与亚洲国家金融机构国际合作程度受政治与教育因素的影响明显,而中国与欧洲国家的金融机构国际合作程度则受经济与文化因素的影响更显著。

Keyword :

“一带一路”倡议 “一带一路”倡议 金融机构国际合作影响因素 金融机构国际合作影响因素 金融机构国际合作指数 金融机构国际合作指数

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GB/T 7714 唐旻 , 黄志刚 , 林朝颖 . “一带一路”沿线国家的金融机构国际合作指数构建与影响因素分析 [J]. | 管理评论 , 2023 , 35 (10) : 33-44 .
MLA 唐旻 et al. "“一带一路”沿线国家的金融机构国际合作指数构建与影响因素分析" . | 管理评论 35 . 10 (2023) : 33-44 .
APA 唐旻 , 黄志刚 , 林朝颖 . “一带一路”沿线国家的金融机构国际合作指数构建与影响因素分析 . | 管理评论 , 2023 , 35 (10) , 33-44 .
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金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展——基于“双循环”相互促进的视角 CSSCI CSCD PKU
期刊论文 | 2023 , 31 (11) , 151-164 | 中国管理科学
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Abstract :

“双循环”新格局构建下,国内国际双循环相互促进机制构建对优化国内大循环意义非凡。本文通过考察对外直接投资(OFDI)这一外循环因素对金融科技与经济高质量发展之间关系的影响,从双循环相互促进的视角为经济高质量发展目标的实现提供新的思路。理论模型的研究结果表明,金融领域过度投资时,加强金融科技创新成果的推广应用,促进金融科技外溢效应的发挥,可有效提升金融效率并促进经济高质量发展。这一结论在动态空间自回归检验中得到验证:当前金融科技对促进中国经济高质量发展尚未发挥显著作用,但其在中国对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的直接投资领域的应用却可以推动其发挥更大的经济效应。因此,抓住“一带一路”国际合作机遇,积极推进金融科技国际合作、加快金融科技成果应用转化,强化双循环相互促进机制,是引导金融科技规范健康发展、更好服务实体经济的一条有效路径。

Keyword :

动态空间自回归模型 动态空间自回归模型 对外直接投资 对外直接投资 熵权TOPSIS 熵权TOPSIS 经济高质量发展 经济高质量发展 金融科技 金融科技

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GB/T 7714 刘丹阳 , 黄志刚 . 金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展——基于“双循环”相互促进的视角 [J]. | 中国管理科学 , 2023 , 31 (11) : 151-164 .
MLA 刘丹阳 et al. "金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展——基于“双循环”相互促进的视角" . | 中国管理科学 31 . 11 (2023) : 151-164 .
APA 刘丹阳 , 黄志刚 . 金融科技、OFDI与经济高质量发展——基于“双循环”相互促进的视角 . | 中国管理科学 , 2023 , 31 (11) , 151-164 .
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Gender, external financing and firm performance: evidence from Chinese private firms SSCI
期刊论文 | 2023 , 39 (3) , 370-387 | GENDER IN MANAGEMENT
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PurposeThe operational framework of external financing in the correlation between the gender of entrepreneurs and firm performance remains to be resolved. This study aims to investigate the mediating effect of external financing on gender-based disparities in private firm performance and to explore its heterogeneity within the Chinese context.Design/methodology/approachBased on national data from the 10th to 13th Chinese Private Enterprise Survey, this study used a bootstrap-based mediation effect model to analyze the role of external financing as a mediator in the relationship between entrepreneur gender and firm performance.FindingsThis study found that external financing is a constructive mediator between entrepreneur gender and firm performance. Heterogeneity analysis revealed that external financing plays a complementary mediation role in the impact of entrepreneur gender on performance in West China. In the tertiary industry, external financing acts as the sole mediator for the impact of gender on firm performance. Notably, this mediating effect is present in non-startups but not in startups.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that external financing can improve the firm performance of female entrepreneurs. Governments and policymakers should strengthen financial support for female entrepreneurs in West China, tertiary industry and non-startup enterprises.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature on gender and corporate governance by shedding light on the mediating role of external financing in the relationship between the gender of business owners and firm performance.

Keyword :

External financing External financing Firm performance Firm performance Gender Gender Mediating effect model Mediating effect model

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GB/T 7714 Huang, Lingyun , Liu, Jiankun , Huang, Zhigang . Gender, external financing and firm performance: evidence from Chinese private firms [J]. | GENDER IN MANAGEMENT , 2023 , 39 (3) : 370-387 .
MLA Huang, Lingyun et al. "Gender, external financing and firm performance: evidence from Chinese private firms" . | GENDER IN MANAGEMENT 39 . 3 (2023) : 370-387 .
APA Huang, Lingyun , Liu, Jiankun , Huang, Zhigang . Gender, external financing and firm performance: evidence from Chinese private firms . | GENDER IN MANAGEMENT , 2023 , 39 (3) , 370-387 .
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引入投资者关注度的股指收益率预测研究——基于差分进化算法极限学习机模型 CSCD PKU
期刊论文 | 2022 , 42 (06) , 1503-1518 | 系统科学与数学
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Abstract :

投资者关注在股市中的作用是近年来研究的热门问题之一.文章创新性地将百度指数作为中国市场投资者关注度指标加入以差分进化算法优化的极限学习机(DE-ELM)中,研究百度指数对中国股票指数的预测能力.实证结果显示,差分进化算法极限学习机(DE-ELM)模型的预测能力较传统计量模型ARIMA模型和传统神经网络模型BP神经网络模型显著提高,且加入百度指数能够提升DE-ELM模型对股指收益率的预测精度,其中以加入“牛市”、“熊市”和“金融危机” 3个百度指数的差分进化算法极限学习机(DE-ELM)预测精度最高,结果最稳定.

Keyword :

差分进化算法极限学习机 差分进化算法极限学习机 投资者关注度 投资者关注度 百度指数 百度指数

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GB/T 7714 唐旻 , 黄志刚 . 引入投资者关注度的股指收益率预测研究——基于差分进化算法极限学习机模型 [J]. | 系统科学与数学 , 2022 , 42 (06) : 1503-1518 .
MLA 唐旻 et al. "引入投资者关注度的股指收益率预测研究——基于差分进化算法极限学习机模型" . | 系统科学与数学 42 . 06 (2022) : 1503-1518 .
APA 唐旻 , 黄志刚 . 引入投资者关注度的股指收益率预测研究——基于差分进化算法极限学习机模型 . | 系统科学与数学 , 2022 , 42 (06) , 1503-1518 .
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