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学者姓名：刘琨
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Abstract ：
The paper examines how central bank communication affects the macro information in analyst forecasts. Using quarterly data of Chinese-listed firms from 2007 to 2018, we find that richer and more frequent central bank communication increases the macro information contained in analyst forecasts. This effect is realized through the employment of in-house economists by security firms. In addition, we document that the effect of central bank communication on macroeconomic information in analyst forecasts is more salient under a contractionary monetary policy regime, during a bear market, or when the economic policy is more uncertain. We also show that analyst forecasts are more sensitive to central bank communication when firms that they follow are state-owned enterprises, have larger leverage ratios, or are located in more developed regions. In addition, analyst forecasts are more susceptible to central bank communication when the communication is in an informal oral format, when the public has more trust in the credibility of the central bank communication, and when the central bank pays more attention to expectation management after 2010. Finally, we show that richer and more frequent central bank communication also improves the accuracy of analyst forecasts.
Keyword ：
analyst forecasts analyst forecasts central bank communication central bank communication macro information macro information monetary policy monetary policy
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| GB/T 7714 | Chen, Dong , Liu, Kun , He, Lerong . Central bank communication and macro information in analyst forecasts: Evidence from Chinese listed firms [J]. | JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT & ACCOUNTING , 2024 . |
| MLA | Chen, Dong 等. "Central bank communication and macro information in analyst forecasts: Evidence from Chinese listed firms" . | JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT & ACCOUNTING (2024) . |
| APA | Chen, Dong , Liu, Kun , He, Lerong . Central bank communication and macro information in analyst forecasts: Evidence from Chinese listed firms . | JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT & ACCOUNTING , 2024 . |
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Abstract ：
With the increasingly stringent global restrictions on carbon emissions, firms are facing growing carbon risks, which may not only drive up firms' pollution control costs but also force them to improve investment efficiency by optimizing investment and saving costs. Taking the Paris Agreement event as the background and using the data of listed companies in China from 2007 to 2020 and a difference-in-differences model, this paper reveals that the increase in carbon risk can significantly improve the investment efficiency of China's carbon-intensive firms. In addition, we find that the increase in carbon risk can encourage firms to carry out mergers and acquisitions to improve investment efficiency. Our findings provide Chinese evidence for the effective link between carbon risk and firm investment efficiency and may serve as a decision-making reference for carbon-intensive enterprises to improve investment efficiency through merger and acquisition activities in the context of increasing carbon risk. © 2024 Elsevier Inc.
Keyword ：
Carbon-intensive enterprise Carbon-intensive enterprise Carbon risk Carbon risk M&A M&A The paris agreement The paris agreement
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| GB/T 7714 | Liu, K. , Su, X. , Lu, L. . Carbon risk and investment efficiency: A merger and acquisition perspective [J]. | International Review of Economics and Finance , 2024 , 95 . |
| MLA | Liu, K. 等. "Carbon risk and investment efficiency: A merger and acquisition perspective" . | International Review of Economics and Finance 95 (2024) . |
| APA | Liu, K. , Su, X. , Lu, L. . Carbon risk and investment efficiency: A merger and acquisition perspective . | International Review of Economics and Finance , 2024 , 95 . |
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<正>一、引言全面预算绩效管理是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的内在要求，作为缓解财政收支矛盾、提高国家治理效能的重要方法和工具，助力推动提高资金使用效益，切实提升财政保障能力，在当前显得尤其重要和紧迫。预算绩效评价结果应用是推动预算绩效管理的关键所在，评价结果应该及时被用于决策，促进预算绩效管理更好地发挥“指挥棒”作用，以有效提高财政管理水平，扩大政府支出效果。
Keyword ：
结果应用 结果应用
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| GB/T 7714 | 俞元鹉 , 刘琨 , 林若 et al. 关于推动建立健全财政重点评价结果应用制度的路径思考 [J]. | 预算管理与会计 , 2023 , 7 (04) : 28-34 . |
| MLA | 俞元鹉 et al. "关于推动建立健全财政重点评价结果应用制度的路径思考" . | 预算管理与会计 7 . 04 (2023) : 28-34 . |
| APA | 俞元鹉 , 刘琨 , 林若 , 林泽楠 . 关于推动建立健全财政重点评价结果应用制度的路径思考 . | 预算管理与会计 , 2023 , 7 (04) , 28-34 . |
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部门整体支出绩效评价是全面实施预算绩效管理的重要组成部分,也是进一步深化预算绩效管理改革的方向.通过剖析当前部门整体支出绩效评价的理论演进与操作实务,发现依然存在"碎片化"等问题,未能充分体现促进部门整体效能提升的功能作用.借鉴共生理论以实现复杂系统和谐统一为目标的理念,能很好实现部门整体支出绩效评价的"整体性"理念.因此,进一步融合共生理论设计部门整体支出绩效评价方案,并以福建省交通运输厅为典型案例验证评价方案的可操作性,对优化部门整体支出绩效评价具有启示意义.
Keyword ：
共生理论 共生理论 绩效评价 绩效评价 部门整体支出 部门整体支出
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| GB/T 7714 | 俞元鹉 , 刘琨 , 刘力田 . 共生理论视角下部门整体支出绩效评价研究 [J]. | 经济研究参考 , 2023 , (1) : 19-29 . |
| MLA | 俞元鹉 et al. "共生理论视角下部门整体支出绩效评价研究" . | 经济研究参考 1 (2023) : 19-29 . |
| APA | 俞元鹉 , 刘琨 , 刘力田 . 共生理论视角下部门整体支出绩效评价研究 . | 经济研究参考 , 2023 , (1) , 19-29 . |
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In recent years, the rise of investment protectionism has led to the decline of investment openness all over the world. Based on the perspective of valuation effects which affects changes in national external wealth, we carry out empirical analysis and find that investment openness has inhibitory effect on national external wealth in the short term but promotes it in the lag period. Furthermore, we use the open economy macroeconomic theory (NOEM) to construct DSGE model and find that reducing the degree of investment openness will lead to the rise of domestic investment asset prices and produce positive valuation effects, which will lead to the short term increase of national external wealth. However, this effect has poor persistence. In the long run, the reduction of openness will hinder transnational investment, reduce the income of transnational investment, and eventually lead to the deterioration of national external wealth. The DSGE model we constructed can be applicable for solving some problems for open economic policy. From the conclusion we have acquired, it is indicated that nations who want to maintain the steady growth of the external wealth should continue to improve investment openness and international investment environment, alleviate investment information asymmetry, and avert increasing investment protectionism.
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| GB/T 7714 | Liu, Kun , Lu, Lingchen , Xu, Jianwei . Impact of Investment Openness on National External Wealth: Based on Valuation Effects Perspective [J]. | DISCRETE DYNAMICS IN NATURE AND SOCIETY , 2022 , 2022 . |
| MLA | Liu, Kun et al. "Impact of Investment Openness on National External Wealth: Based on Valuation Effects Perspective" . | DISCRETE DYNAMICS IN NATURE AND SOCIETY 2022 (2022) . |
| APA | Liu, Kun , Lu, Lingchen , Xu, Jianwei . Impact of Investment Openness on National External Wealth: Based on Valuation Effects Perspective . | DISCRETE DYNAMICS IN NATURE AND SOCIETY , 2022 , 2022 . |
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This study investigates the influence of overseas ethnic Chinese networks on China's outward foreign direct investment using panel data from 2007 to 2018. The empirical results show that: first, overseas ethnic Chinese networks can promote outward foreign direct investment from China. Second, this influence is achieved through cultural identity. In addition, considering the heterogeneity of the business environment in host countries, we find that this transmission path is clearer in host countries with unhealthy business environments.
Keyword ：
Cultural identity Cultural identity outward foreign direct investment outward foreign direct investment overseas ethnic Chinese networks overseas ethnic Chinese networks
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| GB/T 7714 | Xu, Jianwei , Liu, Shengtong , Liu, Kun . Influence of overseas ethnic Chinese networks on China's outward foreign direct investment [J]. | JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT , 2022 . |
| MLA | Xu, Jianwei et al. "Influence of overseas ethnic Chinese networks on China's outward foreign direct investment" . | JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (2022) . |
| APA | Xu, Jianwei , Liu, Shengtong , Liu, Kun . Influence of overseas ethnic Chinese networks on China's outward foreign direct investment . | JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT , 2022 . |
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随着中国双向直接投资存量规模的扩大,人民币汇率波动通过金融调整渠道对中国经济产生的传递效应日益显著,金融调整渠道逐渐成为贸易调整渠道之外又一条重要的汇率传递通道.文章通过开放宏观经济模型分析发现,汇率波动通过金融调整渠道对中国经济增长产生的传递效应主要受到投资开放程度、投资替代弹性和投资偏好等相关因素的影响.进一步,文章利用2003 ～2019年月度数据构建单变量自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)实证研究发现,汇率波动通过金融调整渠道对经济增长的影响较通过贸易调整渠道对经济增长的影响更加复杂,除表现为传递的不完全性与滞后性外,汇率波动分别通过基于FDI和OFDI资产的金融调整渠道对经济增长的影响在即期和存续期还呈现出相互抵消态势.研究结论不仅有效拓宽了汇率传递理论,并对优化中国涉外经济政策以及推动开放型经济新体制的构建具有现实价值.
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| GB/T 7714 | 许建伟 , 刘琨 . 金融调整渠道下人民币汇率波动的传递效应研究 [J]. | 世界经济研究 , 2021 , (9) : 25-36 . |
| MLA | 许建伟 et al. "金融调整渠道下人民币汇率波动的传递效应研究" . | 世界经济研究 9 (2021) : 25-36 . |
| APA | 许建伟 , 刘琨 . 金融调整渠道下人民币汇率波动的传递效应研究 . | 世界经济研究 , 2021 , (9) , 25-36 . |
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In this study, based on data for China's Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and the resource environments of related host countries announced from 2007 to 2018, we constructed an empirical model. First, we found that improving a host country's resource environment still had a significant impact on attracting China's OFDI. Secondly, we found that for host countries with rich resources, although improving the resource environment encouraged resource-driven OFDI, it had a crowding out effect on the introduction of market-driven OFDI. For host countries with poor resources, improving the resource environment had no obvious impact on resource-driven OFDI, but could have a positive impact on the market-driven OFDI. Therefore, improving the resource environment should help to expand OFDI and promote economic and trade globalisation eventually.
Keyword ：
impact mechanism impact mechanism Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) resource environment resource environment
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| GB/T 7714 | Liu, Kun , Xu, Jianwei . IMPACT MECHANISM OF RESOURCE ENVIRONMENT ON OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT [J]. | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ECOLOGY , 2021 , 22 (4) : 1782-1789 . |
| MLA | Liu, Kun et al. "IMPACT MECHANISM OF RESOURCE ENVIRONMENT ON OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT" . | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ECOLOGY 22 . 4 (2021) : 1782-1789 . |
| APA | Liu, Kun , Xu, Jianwei . IMPACT MECHANISM OF RESOURCE ENVIRONMENT ON OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT . | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ECOLOGY , 2021 , 22 (4) , 1782-1789 . |
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传统制造业数字化转型是数字经济与实体经济融合发展的重要路径,不仅催生新产品与新服务,也将推动企业管理模式的创新.战略管理会计作为企业战略决策的信息支持系统,也将随企业数字化转型而向高阶演进.文章以长安汽车数字化转型为例,通过总结传统制造企业数字化转型进程中公司战略定位、组织结构、创新模式等一系列变化,发现数字化转型能有效赋能企业战略管理会计的实施,通过重塑高效化决策组织、构建整合化创新平台,搭建智能化信息架构、根植预见性财务理念,战略管理会计将在数字化转型背景下实现重构,充分发挥其战略决策的智能支持作用.
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| GB/T 7714 | 刘琨 , 付锐 , 许建伟 . 制造业数字化转型背景下战略管理会计创新路径探析 ——以长安汽车为例 [J]. | 国际商务财会 , 2021 , (15) : 32-39 . |
| MLA | 刘琨 et al. "制造业数字化转型背景下战略管理会计创新路径探析 ——以长安汽车为例" . | 国际商务财会 15 (2021) : 32-39 . |
| APA | 刘琨 , 付锐 , 许建伟 . 制造业数字化转型背景下战略管理会计创新路径探析 ——以长安汽车为例 . | 国际商务财会 , 2021 , (15) , 32-39 . |
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As economic globalization drives Chinese enterprises to become increasingly active in cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A), determining how to optimize M&A performance has become an important issue in the study of cross-border M&A in China. With the increasingly significant impact of environmental governance on the sustainability of economic development, the carbon emission levels of host countries have also become an important factor for Chinese enterprises to optimize their decision-making related to overseas mergers and acquisitions. We used the cases of cross-border mergers and acquisitions of listed enterprises in China from 2007 to 2016 as research samples to empirically test the impact of the carbon emission level of the host country on the M&A performance of the Chinese acquirer. The empirical results draw the following conclusions: First, the carbon emission of the host country can promote the short-term M&A performance. However, this effect is not sustainable, and it has gradually disappeared in the third year. Secondly, as the per capita income of the host country increases, the increase in the carbon emission intensity of the host country will inhibit the cross-border M&A performance. Finally, as the environmental vulnerability of the host country increases, the increase in the carbon emission intensity of the host country will inhibit the cross-border M&A performance. This conclusion not only provides ideas to help Chinese enterprises optimize the distribution of their overseas investments, but also provides evidence supporting the formation of an endogenous driving force for the benign development of global environmental governance.
Keyword ：
A performance A performance Carbon emission Carbon emission Cross-border mergers and acquisitions Cross-border mergers and acquisitions M& M&
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| GB/T 7714 | Liu, Kun , Wu, Shiyi , Guo, Na et al. Host Country's carbon emission and cross-border M&A performance: Evidence from listed enterprises in China [J]. | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION , 2021 , 314 . |
| MLA | Liu, Kun et al. "Host Country's carbon emission and cross-border M&A performance: Evidence from listed enterprises in China" . | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 314 (2021) . |
| APA | Liu, Kun , Wu, Shiyi , Guo, Na , Fang, Qiaoling . Host Country's carbon emission and cross-border M&A performance: Evidence from listed enterprises in China . | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION , 2021 , 314 . |
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