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Abstract:
Short-term water demand forecasting is essential for ensuring the sustainable use of water resources. The accuracy of water demand forecasting directly impacts the rationality of water resources management and the effectiveness of scheduling. Therefore, it is vital to accurately forecast water demand across various timescales. Based on this motivation, we propose an improved patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) model to forecast the multi-timescale short-term water demand. By introducing relative positional encoding (RPE), the model effectively learns the relationships between tokens. The model combines the global token information capture ability of the self-attention mechanism with the local token information capture ability of the convolutional network to enhance feature extraction abilities. Additionally, the model integrates the advantages of patch-wise and series-wise representation, enabling it to simultaneously capture both local and global dependencies in time series. We utilize historical data collected from district metering area to experimentally validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Compared with one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), long shortterm memory (LSTM), Transformer, DLinear, and PatchTST models, our model demonstrates superior performance across all five forecasting scales. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed design is further validated through ablation experiments.
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JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN: 0022-1694
Year: 2024
Volume: 651
5 . 9 0 0
JCR@2023
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SCOPUS Cited Count:
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
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30 Days PV: 3
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