Shear-keyed　tooth　joints　(SKTJs)　are　commonly　used　in　prefabricated　buildings,　including　wind　turbine　foundations,　to　connect　prestressed　modules.　Due　to　the　significant　loss　of　prestress　in　precast　wind　turbine　foundations,　slip　failure　is　more　likely　to　occur　than　shear　failure.　In　this　paper,　a　predictive　model　for　SKTJs　under　small　confining　stress　based　on　the　ultimate　limit　state　theory　is　proposed.　The　effects　of　the　number　of　shear　keyed　teeth,　reinforcement,　and　confining　stress　on　the　shear　capacity　of　SKTJs　are　analyzed　numerically.　The　incremental　coefficient,　i.e.,　the　ratio　of　the　shear　strength　increment　to　the　product　of　the　shear　strength　and　the　joint’s　positive　stress　corresponding　to　the　compression-shear　state　is　illustrated　theoretically　and　suggested　to　be　0.228,　conservatively.　A　reduction　factor　is　suggested　for　multi-keyed　joints,　and　the　contribution　of　reinforcement　to　the　shear　capacity　is　around　5%.　Small　confining　stress　results　in　slip　failure,　while　large　confining　stress　slows　down　the　degree　of　shear　failure.　There　is　a　positive　correlation　between　the　shear　capacity　under　slip　failure　and　the　confining　stress.　Finally,　the　predictive　model　is　validated　by　simulating　the　results　of　slip　and　shear　failures.　©　2024　by　the　authors.