Xiong’an　New　Area　was　established　as　a　state-level　new　area　in　2017　and　serves　as　a　typical　representative　area　for　studying　the　ecological　evolution　of　rural　areas　under　rapid　urbanization　in　China.　Remote　sensing-based　ecological　index　(RSEI)　is　a　regional　eco-environmental　quality　(EEQ)　assessment　index.　Many　studies　have　employed　RSEI　to　achieve　rapid,　objective,　and　effective　quantitative　assessment　of　the　spatio-temporal　changes　of　regional　EEQ.　However,　research　that　combines　RSEI　with　machine　learning　algorithms　to　conduct　multi-scenario　simulation　of　EEQ　is　still　relatively　scarce.　Therefore,　this　study　assessed　and　simulated　EEQ　changes　in　Xiong’an　and　revealed　that:　(1)　The　large-scale　construction　has　led　to　an　overall　decline　in　EEQ,　with　the　RSEI　decreasing　from　0.648　in　2014　to　0.599　in　2021.　(2)　Through　the　multi-scenario　simulation,　the　non-unidirectional　evolution　of　RSEI　during　the　process　of　urban-rural　construction　has　been　revealed,　specifically　characterized　by　a　significant　decline　followed　by　a　slight　recovery.　(3)　The　marginal　effects　of　urban-rural　construction　features　for　simulated　RSEI　demonstrate　an　inverted　“U-shaped”　curve　in　the　relationship　between　urbanization　and　EEQ.　This　indicates　that　urbanization　and　EEQ　may　not　be　absolute　zero-sum.　These　findings　can　provide　scientific　insights　for　maintaining　and　improving　the　regional　EEQ　in　urban-rural　construction.　©　The　Author(s)　2024.