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author:

Gong, Junfu (Gong, Junfu.) [1] | Xu, Junzeng (Xu, Junzeng.) [2] | Yao, Cheng (Yao, Cheng.) [4] | Li, Zhijia (Li, Zhijia.) [5] | Weerts, Albrecht H. (Weerts, Albrecht H..) [6] | Wang, Xiaoyi (Wang, Xiaoyi.) [8] | Huang, Yingchun (Huang, Yingchun.) [9]

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EI

Abstract:

For flood simulation in humid catchments, utilizing discharge observations to update the states of hydrological models may enhance performance. Asynchronous Ensemble Kalman Filter (AEnKF), an asynchronous variant of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), holds substantial application potential in hydrological assimilation due to its ability to utilize more observations with almost no additional computational time. This study employs AEnKF to update the state variables of the Xin'anjiang model, necessitating the use of error models to perturb both model states and observations to generate ensemble spread. The Bias-corrected Gaussian Error Model (BGEM) is used to mitigate the systematic bias brought by perturbating soil moisture, and the Maximum a Posteriori Estimation Method (MAP) is employed for the estimation of hyperparameters of error models. Through synthetic and real-world data testing, it has been validated that the rectification of soil moisture perturbations using the BGEM significantly reduces the systematic bias induced by Gaussian perturbations. Moreover, the assimilation scheme introduced in this study, based on AEnKF with enhanced error models, outperforms the EnKF with those models. It substantially reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, thereby aiding in elevating the accuracy of flood forecasting. © 2024 Elsevier B.V.

Keyword:

Catchments Errors Flood control Floods Kalman filters Soil moisture Weather forecasting

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Gong, Junfu]College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing; 210024, China
  • [ 2 ] [Xu, Junzeng]College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing; 210024, China
  • [ 3 ] [Gong, Junfu]College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing; 210024, China
  • [ 4 ] [Yao, Cheng]College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing; 210024, China
  • [ 5 ] [Li, Zhijia]College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing; 210024, China
  • [ 6 ] [Weerts, Albrecht H.]Deltares, Delft; MH; 2600, Netherlands
  • [ 7 ] [Weerts, Albrecht H.]Hydrology and Environmental Hydraulics Group, Wageningen University, 6700 HB Wageningen, Netherlands
  • [ 8 ] [Wang, Xiaoyi]Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing; 400714, China
  • [ 9 ] [Huang, Yingchun]College of Civil Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China

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Source :

Journal of Hydrology

ISSN: 0022-1694

Year: 2024

Volume: 640

5 . 9 0 0

JCR@2023

CAS Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 2

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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