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author:

Du, X. (Du, X..) [1] | Cai, Y. (Cai, Y..) [2] | Tang, Z. (Tang, Z..) [3]

Indexed by:

Scopus CSCD

Abstract:

The fluctuations in weather conditions, such as temperature and wind speed, can impact the process of solar and wind power generation, thereby influencing electricity prices. Real-time price settlement requires a higher resolution than daily frequency to forecast electricity prices. This research proposes a novel mixed-frequency model to address the issue of frequency inconsistency problem between electricity prices and related factors, and successfully applies it to Belgium electricity price forecasting. Firstly, the RU-MIDAS method is used to analyze the dynamic impact of weather conditions on prices. Then, RU-MIDAS is combined with machine learning algorithms to predict the prices. The results of error metrics and MCS test indicate that humidity can improve the prediction accuracy of all four sequences. The prediction ability of wind gusts is comparable to that of the highest price; the former helps predict the last two subsequences, while the latter improves the prediction accuracy of the first two subsequences. Temperature can only help predict the fourth electricity price series, and the forecasting ability of weather factors is consistent with the order of feature importance. © The Editorial Office of JSSC & Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2024.

Keyword:

High-resolution electricity price mixed-frequency data analysis the smart grid time series forecasting weather conditions

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Du X.]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350108, China
  • [ 2 ] [Cai Y.]School of Economics and Management, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China
  • [ 3 ] [Tang Z.]School of Economics and Management, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China

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Source :

Journal of Systems Science and Complexity

ISSN: 1009-6124

Year: 2024

2 . 6 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 5

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