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[期刊论文]

Can real-time investor sentiment help predict the high-frequency stock returns? Evidence from a mixed-frequency-rolling decomposition forecasting method

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author:

Cai, Yi (Cai, Yi.) [1] | Tang, Zhenpeng (Tang, Zhenpeng.) [2] | Chen, Ying (Chen, Ying.) [3]

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

This research examines the predictive effect of real-time investor sentiment on high -frequency stock returns. Utilizing text sentiment analysis, we extract investor sentiment with a half-hour frequency from the stock message board. The RR -MIDAS method is used to model half-hourly sentiment and three -minute stock returns, and economic analysis reveals that investor sentiment significantly affects the stock returns during seven high -frequency periods, and the influence gradually weakens. Subsequently, we propose the "MF-EEMD-ML" prediction system, which introduces a rolling decomposition algorithm into the RR -MIDAS framework for predicting highfrequency trend items combined with real-time forum sentiment. The results, using rolling EMD decomposition for comparison, show that the "MF-EEMD-ML" system achieves a maximum reduction of 19.18 % in MAE, 19.08 % in RMSE, 11.71 % in SMAPE, and a maximum improvement of 16.66 % in DS. Additionally, the outcomes of the Diebold -Mariano (DM) tests also demonstrate that the "MF-EEMD-ML" prediction system significantly outperforms both the "MF-EMD-ML" system and the LR model.

Keyword:

High-frequency stock returns Machine learning prediction Real-time investor sentiment Reverse mixed-frequency data sampling Rolling decomposition Stock message boards

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Cai, Yi]Fujian Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Tang, Zhenpeng]Fujian Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen, Ying]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

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    [Chen, Ying]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Fuzhou 350108, Peoples R China

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Source :

NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE

ISSN: 1062-9408

Year: 2024

Volume: 72

3 . 8 0 0

JCR@2023

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 3

30 Days PV: 1

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