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This research examines the predictive effect of real-time investor sentiment on high -frequency stock returns. Utilizing text sentiment analysis, we extract investor sentiment with a half-hour frequency from the stock message board. The RR -MIDAS method is used to model half-hourly sentiment and three -minute stock returns, and economic analysis reveals that investor sentiment significantly affects the stock returns during seven high -frequency periods, and the influence gradually weakens. Subsequently, we propose the "MF-EEMD-ML" prediction system, which introduces a rolling decomposition algorithm into the RR -MIDAS framework for predicting highfrequency trend items combined with real-time forum sentiment. The results, using rolling EMD decomposition for comparison, show that the "MF-EEMD-ML" system achieves a maximum reduction of 19.18 % in MAE, 19.08 % in RMSE, 11.71 % in SMAPE, and a maximum improvement of 16.66 % in DS. Additionally, the outcomes of the Diebold -Mariano (DM) tests also demonstrate that the "MF-EEMD-ML" prediction system significantly outperforms both the "MF-EMD-ML" system and the LR model.
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NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE
ISSN: 1062-9408
Year: 2024
Volume: 72
3 . 8 0 0
JCR@2023
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