Tailings　storage　facility　(TSF)　failures　have　tremendous　impacts　on　surrounding　populations,　communities,　and　ecosystems.　Therefore,　a　three-dimension　risk　matrix　considering　failure　probability,　event　intensity,　and　exposure　of　failure-bearing　bodies　is　established　to　assess　the　risk　of　TSF　failure.　First,　based　on　the　established　assessment　indicator　system,　the　probability　level　is　determined　by　the　uncertainty　measurement　theory　combined　with　the　extension　analytic　hierarchy　process.　Then,　the　event　intensity　level　is　determined　by　two　parameters,　namely　the　volume　of　released　tailings　and　the　maximum　distance　traveled　by　tailings.　The　exposure　level　is　characterized　by　the　potential　loss　of　four　failure-bearing　bodies,　including　population,　economy,　environment,　and　society.　Finally,　the　risk　index　is　calculated　by　the　Euclidean　distance　method　and　the　risk　level　is　determined.　In　the　proposed　model,　the　probability,　intensity,　exposure,　and　the　risk　of　TSF　failure　are　all　divided　into　four　levels　(Level　I,　Level　II,　Level　III,　Level　IV)　from　high　to　low.　The　application　of　the　case　verifies　the　applicability　and　availability　of　the　proposed　model.　©　The　Author(s),　under　exclusive　licence　to　Springer　Nature　Switzerland　AG　2023.