Understanding climate change impacts on drought in China over the 21st century: a multi-model assessment from CMIP6 - Details

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The　future　state　of　drought　in　China　under　climate　change　remains　uncertain.　This　study　investigates　drought　events,　focusing　on　the　region　of　China,　using　simulations　from　five　global　climate　models　(GCMs)　under　three　Shared　Socioeconomic　Pathways　(SSP1-2.6,　SSP3-7.0,　and　SSP5-8.5)　participating　in　the　Inter-Sectoral　Impact　Model　Intercomparison　Project　(ISIMIP3b).　The　daily　Standardized　Precipitation　Evapotranspiration　Index　(SPEI)　is　employed　to　analyze　drought　severity,　duration,　and　frequency　over　three　future　periods.　Evaluation　of　the　GCMs’　simulations　against　observational　data　indicates　their　effectiveness　in　capturing　historical　climatic　change　across　China.　The　rapid　increase　in　CO2　concentration　under　high-emission　scenarios　in　the　mid-　and　late-future　century　(2040–2070　and　2071–2100)　substantially　influences　vegetation　behavior　via　regulation　on　leaf　stomata　and　canopy　structure.　This　regulation　decelerates　the　increase　in　potential　evapotranspiration,　thereby　mitigating　the　sharp　rise　in　future　drought　occurrences　in　China.　These　findings　offer　valuable　insights　for　policymakers　and　stakeholders　to　develop　strategies　and　measures　for　mitigating　and　adapting　to　future　drought　conditions　in　China.　©　2024,　The　Author(s).

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[ 1 ] [Xu F.]Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Soil Erosion and Disaster Protection/College of Environmental & Safety Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350116, China
[ 2 ] [Qu Y.]Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China
[ 3 ] [Bento V.A.]University of Lisbon, Faculty of Sciences, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisbon, Portugal
[ 4 ] [Song H.]College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China
[ 5 ] [Qiu J.]Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
[ 6 ] [Qi J.]Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, 20740, MD, United States
[ 7 ] [Wan L.]Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Soil Erosion and Disaster Protection/College of Environmental & Safety Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350116, China
[ 8 ] [Zhang R.]Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Soil Erosion and Disaster Protection/College of Environmental & Safety Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350116, China
[ 9 ] [Miao L.]School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
[ 10 ] [Zhang X.]USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory Building 007, Room 104, BARC-West, Beltsville, 20705-2350, MD, United States
[ 11 ] [Wang Q.]Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Soil Erosion and Disaster Protection/College of Environmental & Safety Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350116, China
[ 12 ] [Wang Q.]Key Lab of Spatial Data Mining & Information Sharing, Ministry of Education of China, Fuzhou, 350116, China

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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

ISSN： 2397-3722

Year： 2024

Issue： 1

Volume： 7

8 . 5 0 0

JCR@2023

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SCOPUS Cited Count： 12

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List： 0 Unfold All

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30 Days PV： 2

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