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author:

Xu, Feng (Xu, Feng.) [1] | Bento, Virgilio A. (Bento, Virgilio A..) [2] | Qu, Yanping (Qu, Yanping.) [3] | Wang, Qianfeng (Wang, Qianfeng.) [4] (Scholars:王前锋)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Due to the complex coupling between drought and climatic factors, the future drought conditions that might occur under climate change is still unclear. In this research, we used the daily SPEI algorithm to project global drought conditions during 2016-2100 based on the data from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We also employed partial correlation analysis to explore the influence of climate factors on drought. Our analyses show the following: (1) Drought conditions projected by CMIP6 under different models are similar; however, they can vary widely across regions. (2) According to the MK trend test, drought conditions in most regions around the world are expected to become increasingly severe in the future, and this trend is significant. (3) Based on the results of the partial correlation analysis results, it is understood that drought events in most regions worldwide are primarily driven by precipitation. This study contributes to the discussion of projecting future drought conditions and expands the application by utilizing the state-of-the-art CMIP6 climate models and scenarios.Highlight

Keyword:

climate change CMIP6 drought drought index SPEI

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xu, Feng]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Safety Engn, Fujian Prov Key Lab Remote Sensing Soil Eros & Dis, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Qianfeng]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Safety Engn, Fujian Prov Key Lab Remote Sensing Soil Eros & Dis, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Bento, Virgilio A.]Univ Lisbon, Fac Sci, Inst Dom Luiz, P-1749016 Lisbon, Portugal
  • [ 4 ] [Qu, Yanping]China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Res Ctr Flood & Drought Disaster Reduct, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wang, Qianfeng]Minist Educ China, Key Lab Spatial Data Min & Informat Sharing, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China

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Source :

WATER

ISSN: 2073-4441

Year: 2023

Issue: 12

Volume: 15

3 . 0

JCR@2023

3 . 0 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI HC Threshold:33

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:3

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 4

SCOPUS Cited Count: 4

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 3

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