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Abstract:
Due to the complex coupling between drought and climatic factors, the future drought conditions that might occur under climate change is still unclear. In this research, we used the daily SPEI algorithm to project global drought conditions during 2016-2100 based on the data from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We also employed partial correlation analysis to explore the influence of climate factors on drought. Our analyses show the following: (1) Drought conditions projected by CMIP6 under different models are similar; however, they can vary widely across regions. (2) According to the MK trend test, drought conditions in most regions around the world are expected to become increasingly severe in the future, and this trend is significant. (3) Based on the results of the partial correlation analysis results, it is understood that drought events in most regions worldwide are primarily driven by precipitation. This study contributes to the discussion of projecting future drought conditions and expands the application by utilizing the state-of-the-art CMIP6 climate models and scenarios.Highlight
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WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
Year: 2023
Issue: 12
Volume: 15
3 . 0
JCR@2023
3 . 0 0 0
JCR@2023
ESI Discipline: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;
ESI HC Threshold:33
JCR Journal Grade:2
CAS Journal Grade:3
Cited Count:
WoS CC Cited Count: 4
SCOPUS Cited Count: 4
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 3
Affiliated Colleges: