• Complex
  • Title
  • Keyword
  • Abstract
  • Scholars
  • Journal
  • ISSN
  • Conference
成果搜索

author:

Bai, Y. (Bai, Y..) [1] | Peng, Z. (Peng, Z..) [2] | Wei, F. (Wei, F..) [3] (Scholars:魏凤英) | Jin, Z. (Jin, Z..) [4] | Wang, J. (Wang, J..) [5] | Xu, X. (Xu, X..) [6] | Zhang, X. (Zhang, X..) [7] | Xu, J. (Xu, J..) [8] | Ren, Z. (Ren, Z..) [9] | Lu, B. (Lu, B..) [10] | Wang, Z. (Wang, Z..) [11] | Huang, S. (Huang, S..) [13]

Indexed by:

Scopus

Abstract:

The prediction system EpiSIX was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China between November 2022 and January 2023, based on reported data from December 9, 2022, to January 30, 2023, released by The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on February 1, 2023. Three kinds of reported data were used for model fitting: the daily numbers of positive nucleic acid tests and deaths, and the daily number of hospital beds taken by COVID-19 patients. It was estimated that the overall infection rate was 87.54% and the overall case fatality rate was 0.078%–0.116% (median 0.100%). Assuming that a new COVID-19 epidemic outbreak would start in March or April of 2023, induced by a slightly more infectious mutant strain, we predicted a possible large rebound between September and October 2023, with a peak demand of between 800,000 and 900,000 inpatient beds. If no such new outbreak was induced by other variants, then the current COVID-19 epidemic course in mainland China would remain under control until the end of 2023. However, it is suggested that the necessary medical resources be prepared to manage possible COVID-19 epidemic emergencies in the near future, especially for the period between September and October 2023. © 2023

Keyword:

Case fatality rate COVID-19 Epidemic Infection rate Prediction

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Bai, Y.]Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shaanxi, Xi'an, 710054, China
  • [ 2 ] [Bai, Y.]Institute of Public Health, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
  • [ 3 ] [Peng, Z.]Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu, Nanjing, 211166, China
  • [ 4 ] [Wei, F.]School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fuzhou University, Fujian, Fuzhou, 350116, China
  • [ 5 ] [Jin, Z.]Complex Systems Research Center, Key Discipline of Computer Science and Technology of “Double-First-Class” Project of Shanxi Province, Shanxi University, Shanxi, Taiyuan, 030006, China
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, J.]Nankai Institute of Economics, Binhai Development Institute, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
  • [ 7 ] [Xu, X.]Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400010, China
  • [ 8 ] [Zhang, X.]Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liaoning, Jinzhou, 121000, China
  • [ 9 ] [Xu, J.]School of Statistics and Data Science, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
  • [ 10 ] [Ren, Z.]School of Statistics and Data Science, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
  • [ 11 ] [Lu, B.]Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu, Suzhou, 215004, China
  • [ 12 ] [Wang, Z.]School of Statistics and Data Science, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
  • [ 13 ] [Xu, J.]State Key Laboratory of Communicable Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
  • [ 14 ] [Xu, J.]Institute of Public Health, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
  • [ 15 ] [Huang, S.]School of Statistics and Data Science, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
  • [ 16 ] [Huang, S.]Institute of Public Health, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Huang, S.]School of Statistics and Data Science, China

Show more details

Related Keywords:

Source :

Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity

ISSN: 2588-9338

Year: 2023

Issue: 1

Volume: 5

Page: 39-44

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 29

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

Online/Total:191/11112562
Address:FZU Library(No.2 Xuyuan Road, Fuzhou, Fujian, PRC Post Code:350116) Contact Us:0591-22865326
Copyright:FZU Library Technical Support:Beijing Aegean Software Co., Ltd. 闽ICP备05005463号-1