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Abstract:
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had severely disruptive impacts on transportation, particularly public transit. To understand metro ridership changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this study conducts an in-depth analysis of two Chinese megacities from January 1, 2020, to August 31, 2021. Generalized linear models are used to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on metro ridership. The dependent variable is the relative change in metro ridership, and the independent variables include COVID-19, socio-eco-nomic, and weather variables. The results suggested the following: (1) The COVID-19 pandemic has a signifi-cantly negative effect on the relative change in metro ridership, and the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases within 14 days performs better in regression models, which reflects the existence of the time lag effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) Emergency responses are negatively associated with metro system usage according to severity and duration. (3) The marginal effects of the COVID-19 variables and emergency responses are larger on weekdays than on weekends. (4) The number of imported confirmed COVID-19 cases only significantly affects metro ridership in the weekend and new-normal-phase models for Beijing. In addition, the daily gross domestic product and weather variables are significantly associated with metro ridership. These findings can aid in un-derstanding the usage of metro systems in the outbreak and new-normal phases and provide transit operators with guidance to adjust services.
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TRANSPORT POLICY
ISSN: 0967-070X
Year: 2022
Volume: 127
Page: 158-170
6 . 8
JCR@2022
6 . 3 0 0
JCR@2023
ESI Discipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;
ESI HC Threshold:36
JCR Journal Grade:1
CAS Journal Grade:2
Cited Count:
WoS CC Cited Count: 21
SCOPUS Cited Count: 24
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 1
Affiliated Colleges: