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author:

Jiang, Shixiong (Jiang, Shixiong.) [1] | Cai, Canhuang (Cai, Canhuang.) [2]

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had severely disruptive impacts on transportation, particularly public transit. To understand metro ridership changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this study conducts an in-depth analysis of two Chinese megacities from January 1, 2020, to August 31, 2021. Generalized linear models are used to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on metro ridership. The dependent variable is the relative change in metro ridership, and the independent variables include COVID-19, socio-eco-nomic, and weather variables. The results suggested the following: (1) The COVID-19 pandemic has a signifi-cantly negative effect on the relative change in metro ridership, and the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases within 14 days performs better in regression models, which reflects the existence of the time lag effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) Emergency responses are negatively associated with metro system usage according to severity and duration. (3) The marginal effects of the COVID-19 variables and emergency responses are larger on weekdays than on weekends. (4) The number of imported confirmed COVID-19 cases only significantly affects metro ridership in the weekend and new-normal-phase models for Beijing. In addition, the daily gross domestic product and weather variables are significantly associated with metro ridership. These findings can aid in un-derstanding the usage of metro systems in the outbreak and new-normal phases and provide transit operators with guidance to adjust services.

Keyword:

COVID-19 pandemic Generalized linear models Metro ridership Socio-economic variables Weather variables

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Jiang, Shixiong]Peking Univ Shenzhen Grad Sch, Sch Urban Planning & Design, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Cai, Canhuang]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Comp & Data Sci, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Jiang, Shixiong]Univ Town Shenzhen, Peking Univ Compus, Lishui Rd, Shenzhen 518055, Nanshan, Peoples R China

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Source :

TRANSPORT POLICY

ISSN: 0967-070X

Year: 2022

Volume: 127

Page: 158-170

6 . 8

JCR@2022

6 . 3 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI HC Threshold:36

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 21

SCOPUS Cited Count: 24

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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