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Abstract:
The forecasting of top oil temperature can provide a significant basis for insulation aging assessment and fault warning of UHV transformers. This paper proposes a prediction method for top-level oil temperature of ultra-high voltage (UHV) transformer based on conditional mutual information (CMI) as well as long-term and short-term time-series network (LSTNet). Based on historical data, including top oil temperature, dissolved gases in oil, winding temperature, winding current, environmental temperature and other nine parameters, the CMI method is used to select the characteristics with greater information gain for the top oil temperature forecast to reduce the input characteristic dimension. On this basis, LSTNet is applied to extract the long-term periodic law and short-term nonlinear variation contained in the characteristic variables. CMI-LSTNet model is established to realize the prediction of top oil temperature at multiple parts of UHV transformer. The results show that the addressed method not only can describe the change tendency of top oil temperature of UHV transformer effectively, but also has higher prediction accuracy, compared with the existing typical forecasting methods. © 2022 Power System Technology Press. All rights reserved.
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Power System Technology
ISSN: 1000-3673
CN: 11-2410/TM
Year: 2022
Issue: 7
Volume: 46
Page: 2601-2609
Cited Count:
SCOPUS Cited Count: 5
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 1
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