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author:

Long, Houyin (Long, Houyin.) [1] | Wang, Shitong (Wang, Shitong.) [2] | Wu, Wei (Wu, Wei.) [3] | Zhang, Guanglu (Zhang, Guanglu.) [4]

Indexed by:

EI

Abstract:

Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) plays an vital role in ensuring energy security. China initiated the strategic petroleum reserve in 2004. The optimal scale of SPR has become a concern to policymakers. The paper adopts a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the influence of oil shortages on the economy. It is revealed that when the shortage rate reaches 25%, the price of domestic crude oil will rise by 121.2%, the price of refined petroleum products will rise by 67.8%, and the GDP will decline by 0.7%. The GDP loss is accelerated with the shortage rate rises. The output of coal, electricity and other energy will increase, and most non-energy sectors will decline. There is an inverse U-shaped curve between net export and oil shortage. Based on the result of CGE, we further develop a framework to determine the optimal SPR. The results indicate that the optimal stockpile is 389 million barrels, which is higher than the current reserve scale. At least an additional 198 million barrels of reserves are required. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantify the impact of exogenous variables. The findings of this paper can provide reference information for the policy maker to formulate SPR planning. © 2022 The Author(s)

Keyword:

Energy security Gasoline Petroleum refining Proven reserves Sensitivity analysis

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Long, Houyin]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fujian; 350180, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Shitong]School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fujian; 350180, China
  • [ 3 ] [Wu, Wei]School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Fujian; 361005, China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhang, Guanglu]International Development Cooperation Academy, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai; 200336, China

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Source :

Energy Reports

Year: 2022

Volume: 8

Page: 9858-9870

5 . 2

JCR@2022

4 . 7 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI HC Threshold:66

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:4

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 13

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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