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author:

Tang, Zhenpeng (Tang, Zhenpeng.) [1] | Wu, Junchuan (Wu, Junchuan.) [2] | Zhang, Tingting (Zhang, Tingting.) [3] | Du, Xiaoxu (Du, Xiaoxu.) [4] | Chen, Kaijie (Chen, Kaijie.) [5]

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Abstract:

Based on the idea of secondary decomposition and ensemble learning, we build the VMD-EEMD-DE-ELM-DE-ELM model, select soybeans, wheat and rice futures listed on the CBOT exchange as representatives of international grain futures, and predict its future price trend. In view of the existing research that directly ignore the residual items after VMD decomposition, we introduce the idea of secondary decomposition to perform the EEMD decomposition and ensemble prediction of its residual items for the first time. This method can capture the rich information contained in the residual items, thereby helping to improve the model's prediction effect on the original sequence. At the same time, because of the shortcomings of the existing model which use equal weights to reconstruct the prediction results of components, we draw on the idea of ensemble learning and introduces the DE-ELM meta-learner to optimize the reconstruction weights to obtain the best overall prediction results of the model. The empirical results show that the model proposed by us has a significant predictive advantage over the existing models. © 2021, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.

Keyword:

Financial markets Forecasting Grain (agricultural product) Learning systems

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Tang, Zhenpeng]College of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wu, Junchuan]College of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhang, Tingting]College of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 4 ] [Du, Xiaoxu]College of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China
  • [ 5 ] [Chen, Kaijie]College of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350108, China

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Source :

System Engineering Theory and Practice

ISSN: 1000-6788

Year: 2021

Issue: 11

Volume: 41

Page: 2837-2849

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 4

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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