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Abstract:
In this paper, we use quantum field theory to model the term structure of the risk-free treasury bond forward interest rate and the spread forward interest rate which represent credit default risk, and then construct the term structure of the risk-adjusted local government bond forward interest rate. The empirical analysis compares the fitting effect of the new model under the quantum field theory, the traditional model under the quantum field theory and the traditional financial two-factor HJM model, deduces the updating process of the instantaneous forward rate of local government bond under the new model, predicts the instantaneous forward rate of local government bond and tests the robustness. The empirical results show that the prediction effect of the new model under the quantum field theory is better than the traditional model under the quantum field theory and the traditional financial two-factor HJM model, and it has passed the robustness test of the model. Through the reasonable modeling and prediction of the term structure of local government bond forward interest rate, it is of great significance for relevant departments to understand the default risk of local government bond. © 2021, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.
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System Engineering Theory and Practice
ISSN: 1000-6788
Year: 2021
Issue: 4
Volume: 41
Page: 882-891
Cited Count:
SCOPUS Cited Count: 2
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 0
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