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author:

Cheng, Shifen (Cheng, Shifen.) [1] | Lu, Feng (Lu, Feng.) [2] | Peng, Peng (Peng, Peng.) [3]

Indexed by:

SCIE

Abstract:

Short-term traffic forecasting is important for the development of an intelligent traffic management system. Critical to the performance of the traffic prediction model utilized in such a system is accurate representation of the spatiotemporal traffic characteristics. This can be achieved by integrating spatiotemporal traffic information or the dynamic traffic characteristics in the modeling process. The currently employed spatiotemporal k-nearest neighbor (STKNN) model is based on the spatial heterogeneity and adaptive spatiotemporal parameters of the traffic to improve the prediction accuracy. However, the non-stationary characteristics of the traffic cannot be fully represented by simply modeling the entire time range or all the time partitions based on experience. We therefore developed a dynamic STKNN model (D-STKNN) for short-term traffic forecasting based on the non-stationary spatiotemporal pattern of the road traffic. The different traffic patterns along the road are first automatically determined using an affinity propagation clustering algorithm. The Warped K-Means algorithm is then used to automatically partition the time periods for each traffic pattern. Finally, the D-STKNN model is developed based on the three-dimensional spatiotemporal tensor data models for the different road segments with different traffic patterns during different time periods. The D-STKNN model was verified through extensive experiments performed using actual vehicular speed datasets collected from city roads in Beijing, China, and expressways in California, U.S.A. The proposed model outperforms existing seven baselines in different time periods under different traffic patterns. The results confirmed the imperative of considering the non-stationary spatiotemporal traffic pattern in developing a model for short-term traffic prediction.

Keyword:

Adaptation models Dynamic spatiotemporal k-nearest neighbor model Forecasting Partitioning algorithms Predictive models Roads short-term traffic forecasting spatiotemporal pattern Spatiotemporal phenomena temporal non-stationarity Vehicle dynamics

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Cheng, Shifen]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Lu, Feng]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Peng, Peng]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Cheng, Shifen]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Lu, Feng]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Peng, Peng]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Lu, Feng]Fuzhou Univ, Acad Digital China, Fuzhou 350003, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Lu, Feng]Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 陆锋

    [Lu, Feng]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

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Source :

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

ISSN: 1524-9050

Year: 2021

Issue: 10

Volume: 22

Page: 6365-6383

9 . 5 5 1

JCR@2021

7 . 9 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI HC Threshold:105

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 31

SCOPUS Cited Count: 38

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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