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author:

Cai, J.-D. (Cai, J.-D..) [1] | Fu, Z.-Y. (Fu, Z.-Y..) [2]

Indexed by:

Scopus PKU CSCD

Abstract:

The load forecast of power system is one of the important tasks of power dispatch and service department, whose accuracy has a close relation with dispatch operation, production plan and quality of power supply. So going further to the research of load forecasting method and model has important realistic meanings. The hybrid algorithm which combines the particle swarm optimization with BP neural network is applied in the short-term daily load forecasting of power system, and it has a good accuracy. The basic principle of particle swarm optimization algorithm is discussed, and the operational method and procedure of the particle swarm-neural network hybrid algorithm are given. Then by the XOR problem, the PSO-BP hybrid algorithm is proved to have a quicker convergence and a higher computational precision. Then, the daily load forecasting model using the PSO-BP hybrid algorithm is established, which has been applied in the daily load forecasting of a city. Compared the predicted results with other used methods, the PSO-BP hybrid algorithm is proved to have a higher prediction accuracy: the average relative error is not more than 1.48% and the maximum relative error is not more than 4.10%. From the comparison we could find that while the PSO-BP hybrid algorithm is applied in the short-term load forecasting, it has a quick convergence, a high computational precision and a low error, the predicted results could meet the basic requirements of error in short-term load forecasting.

Keyword:

Daily load forecasting; Optimization algorithm; Particle swarm algorithm; Prediction accuracy; PSO-BP hybrid algorithm; Relative error

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Cai, J.-D.]Electrical Engineering and Automation College, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China
  • [ 2 ] [Fu, Z.-Y.]Electrical Engineering and Automation College, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Cai, J.-D.]Electrical Engineering and Automation College, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China

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Source :

High Voltage Engineering

ISSN: 1003-6520

Year: 2007

Issue: 5

Volume: 33

Page: 90-93

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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