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author:

Fu, C. (Fu, C..) [1]

Indexed by:

Scopus

Abstract:

Exchange rate is considered as a highly nonlinear and non-stationary time series which can hardly be properly modeled and accurately predicted by traditional linear econometric models. This study attempts to propose an exchange rate ensemble learning paradigm called EMD-SVR. This methodology decomposes the original non-stationary and irregular exchange rate series into a finite and often small number of sub-signals by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Then each sub-signal is modeled and forecasted by a Support Vector Regression (SVR). Finally the forecast of exchange rate is obtained by aggregating all prediction results of sub-signals. We verify the effectiveness and predictability of EMD-SVR using EUR/RMB time series as sample. The result shows that EMD-SVR has a strong forecasting ability and is remarkably superior to normal SVR. © 2010 IEEE.

Keyword:

EMD-SVR; Exchange rate forecasting; Intrinsic mode function; Non-stationary and nonlinear time series

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Fu, C.]School of Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Fu, C.]School of Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China

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Source :

2010 International Conference on Management and Service Science, MASS 2010

Year: 2010

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 7

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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