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Abstract:
In recent years, financial crises broke out frequently and showed contagion, which caused high attention from scholars both at home and abroad. This paper selects the appropriate dynamic conditional correlation model to study conditional correlation among the Eurozone, the American, A-share, and the Hong Kong stock market. By using the endogenous multiple structural break model and T-test method, the paper divides the contagion period and the stable period, and uses CCK model which considers the external influences to study herd behavior on the A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market. And then, this paper introduces the cross-sectional absolute deviation index of returns to study the herd behavior channel during two crises. It can be concluded that the spread of two crises' contagion to the Hong Kong stock market was faster than that to the A-share market, and the contagion period of the Hong Kong stock market lasted longer than that of the A-share market, but the contagion extent of the Hong Kong stock market was weaker than that of the A-share market. In addition, the contagion effect of the subprime crisis was stronger than that of the European debt crisis, but the contagion period of the subprime crisis lasted shorter than that of the European debt crisis. It confirms that herd behavior channel is one of the contagion channel to the A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market during two crises. © 2017, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.
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System Engineering Theory and Practice
ISSN: 1000-6788
Year: 2017
Issue: 8
Volume: 37
Page: 1982-1991
Cited Count:
SCOPUS Cited Count: 1
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 0
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