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Abstract:
This paper proposes an improved metabolic model GM(1, 1) in order to enhance forecasting precision for life of steel structures. Based on the complete sequence, using the new data taken from the traditional GM(1, 1) model to replace the old data, an improved metabolic GM(1, 1) model is built, which not only ensures the original dimensionality, but also retains the growing trend of the whole information. Forecasting for coating corrosion in a concrete-filled steel tube arch bridge with the proposed model is carried out and compared with the traditional GM(1, 1) model. It is found that the mean square error C with the improved model is 0.132 9, which is much lower than the value 0.172 1 obtained with the traditional GM(1, 1) model. The relative mean error of the improved metabolic GM(1, 1) model(3.20%) is also smaller than that of the traditional metabolic GM(1, 1) model(4.01%). Conclusion is that the improved metabolic GM(1, 1) model has higher forecasting accuracy than the traditional one. It ensures the original dimensionality and retains the growing trend of the whole information, which means the improved metabolic model GM(1, 1) is more reasonable and suitable for long term forecasting. © 2015, Editorial Department of Journal of SJZU. All right reserved.
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Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University (Natural Science)
ISSN: 2095-1922
CN: 21-1578/TU
Year: 2015
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Page: 787-792
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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
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30 Days PV: 1
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