From　the　perspective　of　the　early　warning,　we　have　selected　the　groundwater　quarter　change　as　the　indicators　of　early　warning　of　groundwater,　established　the　multiple　adaptive　regression　splines　early　warning　model　for　regional　groundwater,　analysed　the　driven　factors　of　groundwater　dynamic　change.　Through　the　real　example,　we　compared　the　logistic　regression　model　with　MARS　model.　The　result　shows　that　the　MARS　model　is　more　reliable　and　practical.　But　because　of　the　region　characteristic　of　the　factors,　when　we　use　MARS　model　we　must　select　the　fitting　indicators.