The　ecological　impact　of　urban　development　and　population　increase　is　an　area　of　increasing　relevance　as　human　modification　of　the　landscape　continues　unabated.　The　prediction　of　this　impact　will　help　inform　urban　planning　and　decision　making　around　population　growth,　impervious　surface　(IS)　increase　and　associated　ecological　effects.　The　Xiong＇an　New　Area　is　a　state-level　new　area　to　be　established　in　North　China.　The　population　growth　goal　for　the　area　is　going　to　reach　2.5　million　and　the　area　is　planned　to　expand　to　2000　km2.　The　potential　population　growth　and　area　expansion　will　result　in　a　massive　increase　in　IS　area　and　thus　may　impact　the　regional　ecological　quality.　A　clear　understanding　of　the　impact　would　help　to　minimize　the　influence　of　the　new　area＇s　development　on　regional　ecological　quality.　Therefore,　this　study　investigated　current　land　cover　types　and　ecological　status　in　the　Xiong＇an　New　Area　using　feature　inversion　techniques　and　the　improved　remote　sensing-based　ecological　index　(RSEI).　Statistical　models　were　developed　to　predict　ecological　effects　responding　to　the　forthcoming　population　and　associated　IS　increase　in　the　new　area.　This　was　achieved　by　relating　population　growth　to　IS　area　increase　and　exploring　the　relationships　between　IS　area　and　RSEI.　The　results　show　that　the　area＇s　land　surface　has　not　been　intensively　developed　and　the　current　ecological　status　is　good.　The　RSEI-based　prediction　shows　that　IS　area　has　a　noteworthy　effect　on　regional　ecological　conditions.　The　variation　of　IS　proportions　in　the　new　area　can　result　in　a　significant　shift　of　RSEI.　A　balance　amount　of　total　IS　area　in　the　2000　km2　new　area　is　433　km2.　Exceeding/reducing　the　amount　would　result　in　a　decline/rise　of　the　area＇s　ecological　quality.　Introducing　a　quantity　of　IS　area-related　population　density　(IPD)　reveals　that　the　area＇s　ecological　quality　is　actually　related　to　IPD　rather　than　to　traditional　population　density　when　the　total　area　and　future　population　of　the　new　area　are　given.　Therefore,　the　forthcoming　regional　master　planning　for　the　new　area　should　include　specific　efforts　to　control　IS　area　increase.　©　2018　Elsevier　Ltd