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[期刊论文]

Methods for simulating climate scenarios with improved spatiotemporal specificity and less uncertainty

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author:

Yue, T.-X. (Yue, T.-X..) [1] | Zhao, N. (Zhao, N..) [2] | Fan, Z.-M. (Fan, Z.-M..) [3] | Unfold

Indexed by:

EI

Abstract:

The General Circulation Models and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets used for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) painted future opportunities and challenges afforded by climate change with broad strokes. The model outputs incorporate substantial uncertainty due to the relatively coarse spatial scales and the complexity of the processes incorporated in these models and as a consequence, it is difficult to predict future trends and infrastructure needs in large countries like China at local and regional scales over the next century. The work reported in this article describes several statistical transfer functions that were used to downscale CMIP5 climate predictions in China. The original and new downscaled CMIP5 predictions are compared with observations from 735 meteorological stations scattered across China for the period 2006–2015 to show the various improvements achieved with downscaling. Comparing the three RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) during the period 2006–2015 with observations from 735 meteorological stations indicates that MAEs of mean annual temperature were 1.9 °C for China on average and that the actual temperature was under-estimated at 87% of the meteorological stations under all three scenarios. After the downscaling process using a High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM)-based method, the MAEs for mean annual temperature under the three scenarios were reduced to 0.62 °C for China on average. The MAEs of annual mean precipitation were 317.29, 315.24 and 315.49 mm under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively for China on average and the actual precipitation was over-estimated by all three scenarios at approximately 75% of the meteorological stations. The HASM-based downscaling process meant that the MAEs for the three scenarios were reduced to 80–85 mm for China on average. The downscaled predictions are used to show how temperature and precipitation are likely to vary by region in China from 2011 to 2100. The downscaled results suggest that most of China will become warmer and wetter on average under all three scenarios over the next 30 years and provide improved information to guide the investments and actions that will be needed to improve climate change resilience across China's varied landscapes in the 21st century. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.

Keyword:

Climate change Climate models Forecasting Investments

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Yue, T.-X.]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 2 ] [Yue, T.-X.]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 101407, China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhao, N.]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhao, N.]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 101407, China
  • [ 5 ] [Fan, Z.-M.]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 6 ] [Fan, Z.-M.]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 101407, China
  • [ 7 ] [Li, J.]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 8 ] [Li, J.]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 101407, China
  • [ 9 ] [Chen, C.-F.]College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao; Shandong Province; 266510, China
  • [ 10 ] [Lu, Y.-M.]Key Lab of Spatial Data Mining and Information Sharing, Fuzhou University, 523 Gongye Road, Fuzhou; 350002, China
  • [ 11 ] [Wang, C.-L.]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 12 ] [Gao, J.]State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 1A Fuxing Road, Haidian, Beijing; 100038, China
  • [ 13 ] [Xu, B.]Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing; 100084, China
  • [ 14 ] [Jiao, Y.-M.]School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing; 100083, China
  • [ 15 ] [Wilson, J.P.]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing; 100101, China
  • [ 16 ] [Wilson, J.P.]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; 101407, China
  • [ 17 ] [Wilson, J.P.]Spatial Sciences Institute, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles; CA; 90089-0374, United States

Reprint 's Address:

  • [wilson, j.p.]state key laboratory of resources and environment information systems, institute of geographical science and natural resources research, chinese academy of sciences, 11a datun road, anwai, beijing; 100101, china;;[wilson, j.p.]college of resources and environment, university of chinese academy of sciences, beijing; 101407, china;;[wilson, j.p.]spatial sciences institute, dornsife college of letters, arts and sciences, university of southern california, los angeles; ca; 90089-0374, united states

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Source :

Global and Planetary Change

ISSN: 0921-8181

Year: 2019

Volume: 181

4 . 4 4 8

JCR@2019

4 . 0 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI HC Threshold:137

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 9

30 Days PV: 1

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