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author:

Li, Chong (Li, Chong.) [1] | Xie, Xiuping (Xie, Xiuping.) [2]

Indexed by:

EI CSCD CSSCI

Abstract:

As to the problem of time series prediction for small sample data with time delays, the dynamic changes of system time delays should be considered and expressed in the process of modeling. This paper extends the GM(1,1|τi) model to a more applicable GM(1,1|τi) model, which contains a time-varying delay function to describe the possible time-varying delays in series. An efficient algorithm for the model parameter estimation is given, together with the time response formula of GM(1,1|τi) model. Parameters of the time-varying delay function used in the model algorithm are optimized by the gray correlation degree theory. The method designed in this paper improves the fitting degree of the GM(1,1|τi) model to the analyzed sequence. It also helps to analyze the development trend of system based on the mathematical properties of time-varying delay functions. Finally, the model is applied to forecast the cargo throughput of coastal ports in Fujian province, and the results are compared with those based on GM(1,1) and GM(1,1,τ). Results show that the GM(1,1|τi) model has higher modeling precision when the raw data contains complex time-varying delays and this will enlarge the class of existing grey series prediction models with time delays. © 2019, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.

Keyword:

Forecasting Functions Parameter estimation Predictive analytics System theory Time delay Time varying control systems

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Chong]College of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350116, China
  • [ 2 ] [Xie, Xiuping]College of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou; 350116, China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [xie, xiuping]college of economics and management, fuzhou university, fuzhou; 350116, china

Email:

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Source :

System Engineering Theory and Practice

ISSN: 1000-6788

Year: 2019

Issue: 6

Volume: 39

Page: 1535-1549

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 7

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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