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author:

Qiao, Jianmin (Qiao, Jianmin.) [1] | Yu, Deyong (Yu, Deyong.) [2] | Wang, Qianfeng (Wang, Qianfeng.) [3] (Scholars:王前锋) | Liu, Yupeng (Liu, Yupeng.) [4]

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE CSCD

Abstract:

Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 x 10(6) t) and maize (8.53 x 10(6) t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 x 10(6) t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

Keyword:

climate trends crop distribution crop production EPIC model scenario designs

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Qiao, Jianmin]Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Resources Sci & Technol, CHESS,Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Yu, Deyong]Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Resources Sci & Technol, CHESS,Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Liu, Yupeng]Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Resources Sci & Technol, CHESS,Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Wang, Qianfeng]Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Resource, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • [Yu, Deyong]Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Resources Sci & Technol, CHESS,Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

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Source :

FRONTIERS OF EARTH SCIENCE

ISSN: 2095-0195

Year: 2018

Issue: 2

Volume: 12

Page: 408-419

1 . 2 0 5

JCR@2018

1 . 8 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: GEOSCIENCES;

ESI HC Threshold:153

JCR Journal Grade:4

CAS Journal Grade:4

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 8

SCOPUS Cited Count: 10

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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