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author:

Liu, Qingzhen (Liu, Qingzhen.) [1] (Scholars:刘庆珍) | Shen, Yuanbin (Shen, Yuanbin.) [2] | Wu, Lei (Wu, Lei.) [3] | Li, Jie (Li, Jie.) [4] | Zhuang, Lirong (Zhuang, Lirong.) [5] | Wang, Shaofang (Wang, Shaofang.) [6]

Indexed by:

SCIE

Abstract:

This paper proposes a hybrid short-term load forecasting method, which is based on the fuzzy combination weights as well as the empirical mode decomposition process (FCW-EMD), and support vector machine optimized via the Bat algorithm as well as the Kalman filtering process (KF-BA-SVM). The subjective weight is presented as a new theory and is applied to capture the inherent correlation effectively among hourly loads. Based on the proposed objective weights and subjective weights, the fuzzy combination weights theory (FCW)-a new similar day selection theory is presented, which improves the accuracy of the similar day selection, and correspondingly, makes the original data for EMD processing decrease dramatically. BA is introduced to optimize parameters of the SVM model for further improving the forecasting accuracy. Using the decomposed load series via empirical model decomposition (EMD) as inputs to SVM and further correcting the output of SVM via KF, a hybrid FCW-EMD and KF-BA-SVM short-term load forecasting method is established. Numerical case studies on the load forecasting of a transformer substation in south China show that the proposed hybrid forecasting model outperforms other forecasting methods and effectively improves the prediction accuracy.

Keyword:

Bat algorithm empirical mode fecomposition Fuzzy combined weight Kalman filtering short-term load forecasting subjective weights SVM

Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Liu, Qingzhen]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Elect Engn & Automat, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Shen, Yuanbin]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Elect Engn & Automat, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wu, Lei]Clarkson Univ, Elect & Comp Engn Dept, Potsdam, NY 13699 USA
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Jie]Clarkson Univ, Elect & Comp Engn Dept, Potsdam, NY 13699 USA
  • [ 5 ] [Zhuang, Lirong]Quanzhou Elect Power Supply Co, State Grid, Quanzhou 362000, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Shaofang]China Elect Power Res Inst, Power Automat Dept, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China

Reprint 's Address:

  • 刘庆珍

    [Liu, Qingzhen]Fuzhou Univ, Sch Elect Engn & Automat, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, Peoples R China

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Source :

CSEE JOURNAL OF POWER AND ENERGY SYSTEMS

ISSN: 2096-0042

Year: 2018

Issue: 2

Volume: 4

Page: 226-237

2 . 6 8

JCR@2018

6 . 9 0 0

JCR@2023

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:170

JCR Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 40

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 3

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